---
title: "Mali's Conflict is Nearing Crisis Point. Here's What Comes Next."
description: "JNIM's capture of Kidal and tightening grip on northern Mali have pushed the junta and its Russian backers toward the brink — but Islamic State Sahel's rivalry may yet decide who rules, and whether the state survives."
url: https://fronts.co/article/malis-conflict-is-nearing-crisis-point-heres-what-comes-next.md
canonical: https://fronts.co/article/malis-conflict-is-nearing-crisis-point-heres-what-comes-next/
datePublished: 2026-09-29T14:00:26.000Z
dateModified: 2026-09-29T14:47:41.000Z
author:
  - name: Paweł Wójcik
    url: https://fronts.co/authors/pawe-w-jcik/
publisher: Fronts
image: "https://media.fronts.co/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,height=630,fit=cover,gravity=auto,quality=80,format=auto/images/articles/malis-conflict-is-nearing-crisis-point-heres-what-comes-next-da9a8e5d.png"
type: NewsArticle
language: en
tokens: 94
---

<!-- aeo:section start="lede" -->
JNIM's capture of Kidal and tightening grip on northern Mali have pushed the junta and its Russian backers toward the brink — but Islamic State Sahel's rivalry may yet decide who rules, and whether the state survives.

---

Full analysis is behind the paywall. Read the gated piece at https://fronts.co/article/malis-conflict-is-nearing-crisis-point-heres-what-comes-next/.
<!-- aeo:section end="lede" -->