Due South

Due South: Ethiopia Is Officially At War Ft. Mike DeAngelo From Critical Threats

Sun, 04 Oct 2026 16:00:27 GMT

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-ethiopia-is-officially-at-war-ft-mike-deangelo-from-critical-threats/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Dr. Yagiz Sullu Talks African Economics.

Mon, 28 Sep 2026 16:00:19 GMT

Dr. Yağız Süllü, whose Virginia Tech research covered Gabon and Equatorial Guinea, explains terminal decline in oil production and why it is harder for governments to manage than a price crash. The conversation applies that to Gabon's shift toward manganese and critical minerals, Angola's Chevron discovery and Equatorial Guinea's choice between Washington and Beijing. It then turns to the Iran war oil shock, from fuel shortages in Ethiopia to political risk in Kenya, and to Africa's ties with the Gulf, Iran and a US policy of trade, not aid.

In this episode:

Terminal decline versus an oil price crash
Gabon, critical minerals and the pull between China and the US
How the Iran war oil shock hit Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria
Political backlash from fuel prices in Kenya
Africa's ties with the Gulf and Iran's security links in the Horn
Angola's Chevron discovery and Equatorial Guinea's choice between Washington and Beijing

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Dr. Yağız Süllü, principal analyst at Süllü Strategic Advisory.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-dr-yagiz-sullu-talks-african-economics/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Paweł Wójcik on the Sahel Security Crisis.

Sat, 19 Sep 2026 16:00:00 GMT

Mali, the FLA and JNIM carried out a series of prisoner exchanges this summer, and Paweł Wójcik traces how Libya's Haftar family has become a broker, including in the release of a kidnapped American missionary. He then explains the failed coup in Niger and why he expects further Islamic State attacks on the capital. The conversation weighs whether Russia can hold Mali and Niger, whether Turkey or Algeria could mediate, and how kidnapping for ransom now funds jihadist groups from the Sahel to Mozambique.

In this episode:

The August prisoner swaps between Mali, the FLA and JNIM, with Algeria and Niger mediating
The Haftar family's role as broker and the release of a kidnapped American missionary
The failed coup in Niger and the Islamic State threat to Niamey
Why Russia's Africa Corps is stretched across Mali and Niger
Whether Turkey or Algeria could mediate between the FLA, JNIM and Bamako
Ransom money and the kidnapping economy, from the Sahel to Mozambique

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Paweł Wójcik, an analyst of terrorism and asymmetric warfare who runs a YouTube channel.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-pawe-wjcik-on-the-sahel-security-crisis/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Dr. Caroline Mose Talks Kenyan Youth And Elections.

Wed, 02 Sep 2026 16:57:08 GMT

Dr. Caroline Mose argues that Kenya's 2024 Gen Z protests were not a failure and describes how they changed the country's politics, including a weakened ODM and a falling out between President Ruto and his deputy. She and Wilfred Waimiri discuss state and militia violence against protesters, Ruto's remarks about protesters turning to guns, and young people refusing to be hired as goons. She argues that the Ol Kalou by-election, where the ruling party lost despite reported vote-buying, and the 2.6 million new voters registered for 2027 show where things are heading.

In this episode:

The 2023 and 2024 finance bills, Shakahola and the anger behind the Gen Z protests
Why the protests were a start, not a failure, and the broad-based government
Violence against protesters, paid militias and Ruto's remark about protesters and guns
Young people refusing to work as political goons for hire
The Ol Kalou by-election, reported vote-buying and the ruling party's defeat
The 2.6 million new voters, tribal coalitions and youth mentorship for 2027

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Dr. Caroline Mose, who leads a research and leadership institute in Kenya and hosts the Under the Acacia podcast.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-dr-caroline-mose-talks-kenyan-youth-and-elections/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Maleo on Mali.

Tue, 18 Aug 2026 14:00:21 GMT

JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front took Kidal and Tessalit in April, then failed to take Anefis, leaving Mali's junta short of options in the northeast. Maleo, who follows West African jihadist conflicts, explains why the Anefis offensive failed and why sieges around Bamako have not held. He also covers JNIM's decentralized rule, what drew the Tuareg rebels into partnership, and the reported Russian push to revisit the Algiers Accord.

In this episode:

The Anefis offensive: why it was attempted and why airstrikes helped it fail
Why JNIM's sieges of Bamako and Anefis could not be sustained
Why negotiations are likely over time, and why the junta rejects them
JNIM's decentralized light sharia and rural Malians with no choice
The execution of 24 captured soldiers and the growing threat from FPV drones
Why JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front partner, and Russia and the Algiers Accord

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Maleo, who follows the West African jihadist conflict and the Sahel.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-maleo-on-mali/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: A Conversation With Pawel Wójcik.

Tue, 11 Aug 2026 20:00:51 GMT

Paweł Wójcik, who has tracked jihadist groups since the Syrian war, joins Wilfred Waimiri to explain the Mali crisis after the April and July attacks by JNIM and the Tuareg FLA. He traces how JNIM grew from a coalition of al-Qaeda affiliates into a force operating deep in the south, why the alliance with the FLA may not last, and how the battle in northern Mali ended inconclusively. They also ask how long Russian and Turkish support can keep the junta in place and whether the US return to the Sahel amounts to more than a symbolic gesture.

In this episode:

The Islamic State in the Philippines and the Marawi battle
How JNIM formed and spread into southern Mali
The April capture of Kidal and the JNIM alliance with the FLA
A battle in northern Mali that ended inconclusively
Russian and Turkish support for Colonel Goita's junta
The limited US return to the Sahel and the loss of its drone bases in Niger

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Paweł Wójcik, an analyst of jihadist groups who writes for Fronts.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-a-conversation-with-pawel-wjcik/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: The Tigray War Returns (w/ Michael DeAngelo From Critical Threats)

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 16:00:21 GMT

Ethiopian forces and the TPLF clashed in western Tigray near the Sudanese border, raising fears of a return to the war that killed about 600,000 people. Michael DeAngelo of the Critical Threats Project sets out what is known about who started the fighting and the role of the TPLF's Army 70 unit based in eastern Sudan. He explains Ethiopia's support for the RSF, Eritrea's alliance of convenience with the TPLF, the disputed land held by Amhara militias, and the fuel and manpower limits on both sides.

In this episode:

What happened in the clash south of Humera and what remains unclear
Army 70, the TPLF's bases in eastern Sudan and its ties to the Sudanese army
Ethiopia's support for the RSF and the TPLF claim of RSF involvement
Eritrea's alliance of convenience with the TPLF and its links to Fano
Western Tigray, the Pretoria agreement and why de-escalation talks may not be enough
Fuel shortages, forced recruitment and the signs to watch for renewed war

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Michael DeAngelo of the Critical Threats Project.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-the-tigray-war-returns-w-michael-deangelo-from-critical-threats/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Professor Alex de Waal on Sudan.

Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:00:07 GMT

Fifteen years after South Sudan's independence, Alex de Waal, who worked on the African Union's high-level panel under Thabo Mbeki, explains how the two-viable-states goal was lost and how that led to civil war in the South and economic collapse in the North. He and Wilfred Waimiri discuss the UAE's backing of the RSF, Washington's missed chances, and what he calls kleptocratic peacemaking. De Waal sees a strategic stalemate in Sudan, with partition already present in people's minds.

In this episode:

The Mbeki panel and the debt-for-peace plan behind South Sudan's secession
How a 2012 war and oil shutdown set South Sudan on a path to civil war
Why mediators must not negotiate by press release
The UAE's backing of the RSF, its gold and land interests and its loyalty to clients
Missed US chances to bring Saudi Arabia and the UAE together on Sudan
A strategic stalemate, the threat to El Obeid and partition already in Sudanese minds

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Professor Alex de Waal, research professor at the Fletcher School at Tufts University and executive director of the World Peace Foundation.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-professor-alex-de-waal-on-sudan/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Julia Steers of LightHouse on Sudan & UAE

Tue, 21 Jul 2026 14:00:09 GMT

A Lighthouse Reports documentary traced how the UAE supplies and trains the Rapid Support Forces through eastern Libya, despite Emirati denials. Julia Steers describes reporting in Benghazi and Kufra under Libyan National Army minders, Egyptian strikes on supply convoys, and the RSF's parallel government launched in Nairobi. She also covers Colombian mercenary trainers, RSF defectors, the Western reluctance to press Abu Dhabi, and the warnings now attached to the siege of El Obeid.

In this episode:

Why the UAE backs the RSF, and the network spanning Libya, Chad, Kenya and beyond
The RSF's parallel government launched in Nairobi and Kenya's apparent support
Reporting in Kufra under Libyan National Army minders
Egyptian strikes on Libyan border convoys and the UAE's shifting routes
Colombian mercenaries, RSF defectors and unpaid fighters
Weak Western pressure on the UAE, and the warnings over El Obeid after El Fasher

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Julia Steers, of Lighthouse Reports.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-julia-steers-of-lighthouse-on-sudan-uae/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Mike DeAngelo of Critical Threats Talks Sudan

Tue, 14 Jul 2026 17:30:03 GMT

With Sudan in a de facto partition and the front lines largely stalemated, the RSF is besieging El Obeid with drone strikes and pressure on supply lines. Mike DeAngelo of the Critical Threats Project explains why he thinks the city is unlikely to fall soon and how a fall would differ from El Fasher. The conversation covers the latest US sanctions on both sides, Washington's pressure on the SAF over its Islamist militias and chemical weapons use, defections from the RSF, the RSF's parallel government, and why the US and UK avoid pressing the UAE.

In this episode:

The partial siege of El Obeid and how it compares with El Fasher
US sanctions on RSF-linked mercenary networks and SAF defense firms
Washington's pressure on the SAF over its Islamist militias
SAF chemical weapons use and why the international community holds back
Defections from the RSF, including the Musa Hilal power struggle
The RSF's parallel government, Kenya's role and the UAE's backing

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Mike DeAngelo, Africa analyst at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-episode-2-meltdown-in-the-middle-east-2/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Talking Mozambique with Peter Bofin from ACLED and Tomas Queface from Zitamar News

Tue, 14 Jul 2026 17:30:03 GMT

Nine years into the insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Islamic State Mozambique is down to roughly 300 fighters but has changed how it operates. Peter Bofin of ACLED and Tomas Queface of Zitamar News discuss their new report on its shift from indiscriminate killing to coercion and outreach in Muslim coastal areas. They cover the group's roots and ties to Islamic State networks, ransom raised through mobile money, the Rwandan and Mozambican military response, and what Mozambique could learn from Tanzania and Kenya.

In this episode:

How the insurgency began in 2017 and why Cabo Delgado feels neglected by Maputo
East African radicalization networks and the group's path to the Islamic State
The leadership change and the shift to outreach on the coast south of the LNG site
Why locals distrust the Mozambican military and what Rwanda's force prioritizes
Ransom, roadblocks, gold mining and mobile money as funding sources
Lessons from Tanzania and Kenya, and why dialogue offers little yet

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Peter Bofin of ACLED and Tomas Queface of Zitamar News.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-talking-mozambique-with-peter-bofin-from-acled-and-tomas-queface-from/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Yale Ford Talks DRC

Wed, 24 Jun 2026 18:34:15 GMT

An Ebola outbreak that began in Ituri province, with no approved vaccine or treatment, is straining a Congolese government already fighting M23 in the east. Yale Ford of the Critical Threats Project walks through Ituri's armed groups and the roots of the M23 conflict. He and Wilfred Waimiri also ask what Rwanda wants, whether Kinshasa will act against the FDLR under the Washington accords, and whether M23 can use the Ebola response to claim legitimacy.

In this episode:

The Ebola outbreak in Ituri and the slow government response
Ituri's armed groups, CODECO, the CRP and the ADF, and the role of land and gold
How the M23 conflict grew, from the 2021 talks collapse to Goma and Bukavu
Rwanda's security and influence aims, and the FDLR threat
Stalled Washington and Doha processes and Kinshasa's reluctance to act against the FDLR
Whether M23 can use the Ebola response to build governing legitimacy

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Yale Ford, Great Lakes analyst at the Critical Threats Project, part of the American Enterprise Institute.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-yale-ford-talks-drc/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Surviving Abduction in Tanzania, for Protest in Kenya. (w/ Mwabili Mwagodi)

Tue, 09 Jun 2026 14:56:36 GMT

Mwabili Mwagodi, a former hotel manager turned activist, says he was abducted in Tanzania in July 2025 and handed to Kenyan agents, then arrested in February over a red notice with no court order or charge sheet. He explains how a tweet led to the Occupy Churches protest at the Anglican Church of Kenya Pro Cathedral, and how the 2022 election and the 2024 finance bill protests shaped his turn against President Ruto. He also discusses surveillance, a court ruling on cybercrime provisions and Tanzania's election.

In this episode:

From hotel manager to critic of Ruto after the 2022 election
How church fundraising and Ruto's courting of the Kikuyu vote worked
A tweet, the Pro Cathedral protest and the 2024 finance bill demonstrations
His abduction in Tanzania, handover to Kenyan agents and beating in a forest
The red notice arrest in February and the Court of Appeal ruling on cybercrime sections
Surveillance and dissent in Kenya, and the Tanzanian election

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Mwabili Mwagodi, a Kenyan human rights activist and civic educator.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-surviving-abduction-in-tanzania-for-protest-in-kenya/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South: Liam Karr Talks Africa.

Sat, 30 May 2026 18:12:18 GMT

Liam Karr of the Critical Threats Project argues that the Iran war has not pushed the Gulf states out of Africa and is more likely to deepen their competition in the Horn, with the UAE and Israel on one side and Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey on the other. He and Wilfred Waimiri work through Ethiopia's quest for sea access and its entanglement in Sudan, RSF defections and the limits of its plunder economy, and spillover into Chad. They close on Ebola in eastern Congo and the fight over coltan at Rubaya.

In this episode:

Why the Iran war is unlikely to push Gulf states out of the Horn of Africa
Ethiopia's push for sea access and the odds of conflict with Eritrea
Ethiopia's role as a rear base for the RSF and tensions with Sudan
RSF defections and the limits of its plunder-and-patronage model
Chad's refugee strain, water clashes and elite tensions over backing the RSF
Ebola in eastern Congo and the fight over coltan at Rubaya

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Liam Karr, Africa team lead at the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-liam-carr-critical-threats/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Due South Episode 3: Mayhem in Mali (w/ Casus Belli)

Sat, 09 May 2026 14:00:10 GMT

Coordinated attacks by JNIM and the Tuareg separatist FLA hit Bamako and positions across Mali, killing the defense minister and forcing Russian troops out of some northern bases. Casus Belli, an analyst of French-speaking West Africa, walks through what happened and why the security services failed to prevent it. They discuss JNIM's blockade of Bamako and its funding, the shaky alliance between JNIM and the FLA, the Islamic State's opportunism, Russia's Africa Corps and Turkey, and why neighbours and ECOWAS stayed out.

In this episode:

The attacks of April 25 and the killing of the defense minister
Intelligence gaps after France left, and warnings the government did not act on
How JNIM funds itself through smuggling, kidnapping and captured equipment
JNIM's blockade of Bamako and its political aim
The uneasy JNIM and FLA alliance, and the Islamic State watching from the sidelines
Russian withdrawals, Turkey as an alternative partner and why ECOWAS stayed out

Wilfred Waimiri talks with Casus Belli, a French analyst of West Africa.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/due-south-episode-3-mayhem-in-mali/

More Due South: fronts.co/podcasts

Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co