Middle East Roundtable

Middle East Roundtable: Khaos in the Knesset.

Mon, 02 Nov 2026 13:13:53 GMT

Evan Maloney talks with Kyle Moran about Israel's election, which left Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition short of a majority and set off a struggle over who can form the next government. They work through the coalition math, the prospects for a unity government, and Netanyahu's powers as caretaker prime minister. They also assess the risk of renewed strikes on Iran after the US midterms, the grinding conflict in Yemen, and Hezbollah's latest pledge to stay out of a future war.

In this episode:

Israel's election results, with Netanyahu's coalition at 54 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset
Coalition paths for both sides, including a unity government with Eisenkot's party and the possible role of the two Arab parties
Netanyahu's caretaker powers, his reported order for a strike on Iran that the IDF chief refused, and talk of firing him after the election
The US midterms and the likelihood of renewed strikes on Iran, including plans for joint US-Israeli offensive operations within 96 hours of a go order
Yemen, where Houthis keep striking Saudi Arabia and Aden while the siege of Taiz grinds on
The two Haredi parties weighing support for an Eisenkot government and Hezbollah's promise not to intervene on Iran's behalf

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-khaos-in-the-knesset/

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Middle East Roundtable: Votes and Bombs.

Fri, 23 Oct 2026 19:14:26 GMT

Evan Maloney talks with Kyle Moran about mounting signs that the region is headed back to open conflict. They work through the Israeli air demonstration near Iran, the exchange of strikes around the Strait of Hormuz, and the deadlocked state of negotiations with Tehran. They also weigh when the United States or Israel might strike again, the new military support Saudi Arabia is receiving against the Houthis, and what to expect from Israel's upcoming election.

In this episode:

Several dozen Israeli warplanes flying toward Iran in a show of force, possibly to probe Iranian air defenses
Iran's strikes on shipping and the surge of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as shippers race between shortage windows
Deadlocked negotiations, with Iran demanding the US lift its blockade of Iranian ports
The case for and against renewed strikes, including the untouched Pickaxe Mountain site and America's limited stockpile of deep-penetration bombs
Whether Israel or the United States strikes before or after the midterms, and what a pre-election attack would mean for Netanyahu's coalition
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and new defense commitments from Egypt, Britain and France

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-votes-and-bombs/

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Middle East Roundtable: Once More Unto the Breach?

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 11:26:32 GMT

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-once-more-unto-the-breach/

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Middle East Roundtable: What's the Breaking Point?

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 14:00:28 GMT

Saudi Arabia has launched a large counteroffensive in Yemen to retake the Red Sea coast from the Houthis, and Pakistan and Turkey have stepped up their commitments under the Mecca agreement. The panel asks whether that alliance has proved itself, then turns to Iran, where the rial is in free fall, factions are fighting openly and Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen. They ask where Tehran's breaking point lies, and weigh a possible US ground operation after the midterms and the Israeli election.

In this episode:

The Saudi-backed counteroffensive on Yemen's coast and why it has stalled short of Mocha
Whether Pakistan and Turkey have honored the Mecca agreement or only its letter
The Houthis' limited strategic aims compared with Iran's closure of Hormuz
Iran's collapsing rial, hardliner infighting and the missing Mojtaba Khamenei
Why a US ground operation after the midterms would be politically costly
What to watch next: Hormuz, Iranian factions, the Mecca alliance, Yemen and Iraq

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-whats-the-breaking-point/

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Middle East Roundtable: What Did Bibi Know?

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 19:00:39 GMT

Israeli politics are heating up ahead of a national election, and new reporting suggests Benjamin Netanyahu was warned repeatedly that Hamas was planning something big before the October 7 attacks. The panel works through who warned him and what he did with the warnings, from the UAE's Mohammed bin Zayed to Egypt's intelligence chief Abbas Kamel and a phone call days before the attack. They also cover crude flows through Hormuz returning to pre-war levels and the completed Iraq withdrawal.

In this episode:

Crude oil flows through Hormuz back at pre-war levels, per Kepler data
The US and Italy finish the Iraq withdrawal, ending Operation Inherent Resolve there
Mohammed bin Zayed's warning to Netanyahu, as reported by Haaretz
Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel's short visit to Ben-Gurion Airport
Egypt's three warnings, including a phone call to Netanyahu days before the attack
Netanyahu's belief that the threat lay in the West Bank

With Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri. Evan Moloney is away reporting from the Strait of Hormuz.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-what-did-bibi-know/

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Middle East Roundtable: 3D Chess, But It's Houthi-Style

Fri, 25 Sep 2026 14:00:39 GMT

Iran and the United States are trading notes through Qatari delegates at the UN General Assembly while Houthi forces press the road link into Taiz. The panel asks whether the Houthis are serving Iran's leverage or their own bid for legitimacy, and why Washington is unlikely to intervene. They also cover weaker Iranian control of Hormuz, the rial's slide, Jordan's King Abdullah, Israel's election and Iraq's delayed militia disarmament deadline.

In this episode:

The Houthi attempt to cut the road link into Taiz and what its fall would open up
Hormuz tanker counts and what they say about Iran's leverage
Why the Houthis gain from Iran's talks either way, and why Trump held off strikes
Iran's rial at 2.36 million to the dollar and why mass protest is unlikely
UN General Assembly: Trump's threats, King Abdullah's speech, West Bank olive trees
Israel's election polling, the Ra'am ruling and Iraq's pushed-back militia deadline

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-9252026-3d-chess-but-its-houthi-style/

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Middle East Roundtable: Saudi Arabia's Pre-Existing Condition.

Fri, 18 Sep 2026 18:50:44 GMT

The Houthis have surged to Yemen's west coast, taken islands near the Bab al-Mandeb and shut the Saudi East-West pipeline, leaving Riyadh with few options. The panel asks why Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and the US are staying out, what Israeli intelligence support could change, and what the shock means for Saudi Arabia's standing as a reliable oil supplier. They also cover the cost of the US war with Iran and the Beirut port blast investigation.

In this episode:

The Houthi advance on Yemen's west coast and the Bab al-Mandeb
Why Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt are not backing Saudi Arabia
Somali fighters, al-Shabaab and the Houthi link
The East-West pipeline shutdown and the oil market
Possible Israeli intelligence support for Saudi operations against the Houthis
US war costs and the push to indict Michel Aoun over the Beirut blast

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-saudi-arabias-pre-existing-condition/

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Middle East Roundtable: Weekend at Mojtaba's.

Fri, 11 Sep 2026 09:08:02 GMT

A reopened Houthi ground offensive on the Yemeni city of Taiz has pushed Brent crude above $100 and tests the new Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish alliance. The panel asks what the world can do about the threat to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, then follows the US and Iran trading blows over oil tankers near Hormuz and Iran's shrinking storage options. It also takes up UK sanctions on firms tied to West Bank settlements and the American backlash, and the continued lack of proof of life from Mojtaba Khamenei.

In this episode:

The Houthi assault on Taiz and the Saudi-backed counterattack
Whether Pakistan and Turkey will back their Saudi pact beyond statements
How the world could respond in the Bab al-Mandeb after Operation Prosperity Guardian
US sinking of Iranian tankers, Iranian retaliation and Iran's oil storage limits
UK sanctions on settlement firms and the US backlash over anti-boycott laws
No proof of life from Mojtaba Khamenei, and Brent against Oman crude

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-weekend-at-mojtabas/

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Middle East Roundtable: Don't Bomb the Banker.

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 15:00:52 GMT

A new wave of US strikes on Iranian air defenses, radar and mining capabilities, and Iran's missile and drone barrage on US sites in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain, has the war back in a kinetic phase. The panel asks why Iran's one tool, imposing costs on the US and its hosts, keeps working, whether pipelines can bypass Hormuz, and what the strain on US interceptors and the Navy means. They also cover Iran's internal politics, China's role and Israel's coming election.

In this episode:

The return of tit-for-tat strikes, including US strikes on Iranian tankers in Hormuz
Iran's retaliation as its only hammer, and its political cost to Washington
Pipeline alternatives to Hormuz and the Mecca Accords as a restraint on Iran
Patriot interceptor shortages, a phased-out Army drone battalion and a strained Navy
Iran's sidelined president and China's reported conditions on Hormuz tolls
Israel's election, Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eisenkot and Netanyahu's fractured coalition

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-dont-bomb-the-banker/

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Middle East Roundtable: Iran-Oman Power Hour.

Fri, 28 Aug 2026 16:00:52 GMT

Conflicting reports say Oman has agreed with Iran to manage Hormuz trade jointly, which could end the Omani escort route the United States has relied on. The panel weighs whether Iran would strike Europe if it lost control of the strait, whether a European and Canadian mission could ever deploy, and whether Washington would commit troops later. They then turn to Houthi attacks on Yanbu, an Israeli strike in Idlib and the widening rivalry between Israel and Turkey.

In this episode:

Contested reports of an Iran-Oman deal and a stop to Omani-route crossings
Whether Iran would strike Europe if it lost control of Hormuz
Prospects for a European and Canadian strait security mission
Houthi attacks on Yanbu and a Saudi-backed coastal offensive in Yemen
Whether a future US administration would commit troops to reopen Hormuz
Israel, Turkey and Syria after the Idlib strike, and the risk of proxy clashes

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-iran-oman-power-hour/

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Middle East Roundtable: Economic D-Day

Fri, 21 Aug 2026 16:00:17 GMT

President Trump has declared economic D-Day on Iran, and the UAE, long Iran's biggest trading partner, has announced a halt to trade with it. The panel asks whether the squeeze can push Tehran to compromise on the Strait of Hormuz, where a CNN report says Iran is losing control of shipping. They also examine Israel's strike on a Syrian air base that Turkey was reportedly eyeing, the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey defense deal, and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites.

In this episode:

The UAE halts trade with Iran after Trump's economic D-Day
Iran's central bank governor on frozen assets and the economy
Ships taking the Omani route as Iran loses control of Hormuz
A back channel to the IRGC's Ahmad Vahidi
Israel's strike on a Syrian air base and the Israel-Turkey rivalry
Houthi attacks on Saudi energy targets and the Bab al-Mandeb

With Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-economic-d-day/

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Middle East Roundtable: Stuck Till 2029.

Fri, 14 Aug 2026 19:00:08 GMT

Iranian leadership says it will not negotiate with the United States until the end of Donald Trump's term, while the US blockade continues and Mohsen Rezaei takes over the Supreme National Security Council. Evan Moloney and Kyle Moran ask whether Tehran has overplayed its hand and whether a successor administration would ease the blockade or accept Iranian tolls in Hormuz. They go on to the US interceptor shortage, the lessons of Iran's drone buildup and the case for producing air defenses more widely.

In this episode:

Iran's refusal to negotiate until 2029 and Rezai's hardline demands
Whether a successor administration would accept tolls in the Strait of Hormuz
Why the US lacked a plan for Iranian drones and for reopening the strait
Whether Trump would honor Article 5 after a war of choice
How decades of nuclear-only talks let Iran build its drone and proxy power
Stalled plans for Ukraine to build Patriot interceptors and the wider case for it

With Evan Moloney and Kyle Moran. Wilfred Waimiri is away in Oman.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-stuck-till-2029/

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Middle East Roundtable: For Whom the Strait Tolls.

Thu, 06 Aug 2026 14:00:57 GMT

Iran has announced that its Strait of Hormuz agreement with Oman is postponed, with tolls on every transiting ship still the sticking point. The panel asks whether a 60-day toll-free window is anything more than kicking the can, and what Reuters' report that the US has used virtually all its ATACMS and PrSM missiles says about its options. They also follow Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea outlet, the UAE's quiet from Iranian fire, and the slow Lebanon and Gaza deals.

In this episode:

Iran postpones the Oman Hormuz deal, with a 60-day toll-free window as the hang-up
A CENTCOM request for unconventional ideas and talk of tactical nuclear weapons
Reuters on virtually all ATACMS and PrSM stocks used, and interceptor licensing
Whether China or Russia could exploit US munitions shortages
Houthi and Iraqi militia pressure on Saudi Arabia, Yanbu and the East-West pipeline
Slow Lebanon withdrawals, Hamas's disarmament deal and Iran's missed wedge with Washington

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-for-whom-the-strait-tolls/

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Middle East Roundtable: War Everywhere

Tue, 04 Aug 2026 15:35:20 GMT

Iran's surprise attack on a US base in Jordan ended a mini ceasefire, and Washington is weighing a two-week bombing blitz against an economic pressure campaign. The panel asks which option can reopen Hormuz, and what a new Houthi war with Saudi Arabia means for Red Sea oil exports. They also cover Saudi ships sailing dark, a proposed coalition to protect Bab al-Mandeb, Ukraine's strikes on ships in the Caspian, Lindsey Graham's death and Trump's meeting with Netanyahu.

In this episode:

Iran's attack on a US base in Jordan and the interceptor shortage behind US restraint
Bombing blitz versus economic blockade as US options on Iran
Houthi strikes on Saudi ships, Jizan and Yanbu, and tankers sailing dark
War risk insurance for Saudi cargoes and a Saudi-led coalition for Bab al-Mandeb
Ukraine's strikes on Caspian shipping and Iran's possible response
Graham's death, the Trump-Netanyahu meeting and Israel's Lebanon withdrawal freeze

With Wilfred Waimiri and Kyle Moran.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-round-table-war-everywhere/

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Middle East Roundtable: The Road Back to War.

Sun, 26 Jul 2026 20:35:50 GMT

Fighting between the US and Iran has resumed, Hormuz is effectively closed and the Houthis have hit two Saudi-flagged ships near the Bab al-Mandeb, with Brent back above $100 a barrel. The panel asks what options Washington has left: a renewed blockade, island or coastal operations, or walking away before the midterms. They also cover reports of undisclosed US casualties, Russian targeting help for Iran, Lebanese army pilot zones in the south and a new US-Saudi civil nuclear deal.

In this episode:

Why the Houthis are blockading Saudi Arabia and what it means for Red Sea shipping
Expanded US strikes beyond southern Iran
A renewed blockade versus island operations, ground action or withdrawal
Reports of undisclosed US casualties and Russian targeting help for Iran
Lebanese army pilot zones in the south
The US-Saudi civil nuclear deal and proliferation risk

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-the-road-back-to-war/

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Middle East Roundtable: The Dumbest Timeline.

Mon, 20 Jul 2026 12:40:36 GMT

The United States and Iran are back in near all-out war, with US strikes moving north and Donald Trump hinting at hits on energy infrastructure. The panel asks why the MOU failed, what Iran gains by insisting on full control of the Strait of Hormuz, and whether the pressure will lead to ground operations on islands such as Kharg. They also look at the rise of Iranian nationalism, the political cost of US casualties on video, and whether any off-ramp exists short of accepting an Iranian toll.

In this episode:

A return to near all-out war and strikes moving north
Why Iran insists on full control of Hormuz and what the MOU gave it
Rising Iranian nationalism and protests against negotiators
Why seizing Kharg or other outlying islands would be a trap for US troops
Whether Iran is setting terms for a post-Trump administration
Possible off-ramps, Pickaxe Mountain and Iran's overtures to the Houthis

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-the-dumbest-timeline/

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Middle East Roundtable: Strikes are Back On the Menu.

Tue, 14 Jul 2026 17:30:03 GMT

Iran has fired on ships transiting near Oman's coast for the third time since the memorandum of understanding was signed, and the US has answered with its largest strikes yet, including on 60 IRGC small boats. The panel asks whether the memorandum is coming apart, with US oil waivers now suspended. They also examine the absence of proof of life for Iran's new supreme leader, the politics of Turkey's F-35 bid, and the slow pilot zones in southern Lebanon.

In this episode:

Third Iranian attack on ships near Oman since the memorandum, and the US response
Iran's pressure on Gulf states and why it may isolate the Islamic Republic
No proof of life for Iran's new supreme leader and the IRGC's growing role
Quran verses chosen for foreign dignitaries at Ali Khamenei's funeral
Whether Washington will readmit Turkey to the F-35 program over Israeli objections
Lebanese army pilot zones, one outside Israel's yellow line

With Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri. Evan Moloney is away for this episode.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-strikes-are-back-on-the-menu/

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Middle East Roundtable: As the Dust Settles.

Fri, 03 Jul 2026 15:00:31 GMT

A drone strike on a commercial ship set off a weekend of tit-for-tat US and Iranian strikes, yet talks resumed with Hormuz now on par with the nuclear file. The panel asks what Oman's proposed voluntary toll really is, and whether the first $3 billion released to Iran is a rearmament fund. They also discuss Iran's executions and the fate of its protesters, the 2028 prospects of J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, and Lebanon's limited deal with Israel.

In this episode:

The weekend strike exchange and talks that now center on Hormuz navigation
Oman's voluntary toll modeled on Malacca, and why Iran calls it mandatory
Releases of Iranian funds, the MOU terms and the rearmament worry
Iran's younger IRGC generation, executions and the abandoned protesters
Vance and Rubio: who the war and the MOU hurt more
Lebanon's second 14-point plan, two pilot zones and Israel's stalling

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-as-the-dust-settles/

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Middle East Roundtable: "America: 'I Surrender!'" "Iran: 'No Deal!'"

Thu, 25 Jun 2026 16:20:49 GMT

A declared ceasefire in Lebanon lasted less than an hour, and the US restrained Israel only after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again. The panel asks what that sequence says about American leverage, why Iran is now seen as Lebanon's most consistent defender, and how Israeli politics ahead of the October election constrain Netanyahu. They also discuss a Qatari-led regional security framework that could include Iran, the dispute over tolls in Hormuz, and Congress passing a resolution to end the war.

In this episode:

The Lebanon ceasefire that lasted under an hour and the Hormuz closure that followed
Why Nabatieh residents are thanking Iran and how Beirut can get a win
Netanyahu, Bennett and Lapid ahead of the October Israeli election
Qatar's prime minister on a regional security framework that includes Iran
Tolls in the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran-Oman statement
The war powers resolution passed by both houses of Congress

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-america-i-surrender-iran-no-deal/

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Middle East Roundtable: Memorandum of Misunderstanding.

Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:57:34 GMT

A US-Iran memorandum of understanding has been announced, with a signing ceremony planned in Switzerland and its terms leaked by Bloomberg. The panel reads the points one by one: an end to the war on all fronts including Lebanon, a 60-day window for a final deal, lifting the blockade, reopening Hormuz, $300 billion for reconstruction and the end of sanctions. They ask whether Israel will accept the terms in Lebanon, whether Iran will pursue a nuclear weapon, and whether the war was a failed attempt at regime change.

In this episode:

How the deal was announced and why Israel says it does not apply to it
Point-by-point reading: ceasefire, 60-day talks, blockade and Hormuz traffic
Whether Iranian tolls are left open and what Hormuz precedent the war set
Iran's nuclear incentives after a deal that omits missiles, drones and proxies
The $300 billion reconstruction fund and the end of sanctions
Whether the US was pursuing regime change, as in Venezuela, or only decapitation

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-memorandum-of-misunderstanding/

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Middle East Roundtable: A Ceasefire By Any Other Name

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 15:36:56 GMT

The ceasefire is fraying after Israeli strikes on Beirut, Iranian launches at Israel and the downing of a US Apache helicopter, which brought limited US strikes and Iranian retaliation on bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. The panel asks whether clearly enforced red lines make the region more stable, and where Washington and Israel now diverge. Lebanon's government rejecting Iran as its protector is a central thread, alongside Turkey's growing confrontation with Israel and the World Cup entry restrictions.

In this episode:

The Apache shootdown, the limited US response and Iran's strikes on regional bases
Whether enforcing red lines makes the Middle East more or less stable
Lebanon's government rejecting Iranian claims to speak for it, with 1.2 million displaced
Why US and Israeli aims in the Iran war are diverging, and midterm pressure on Trump
Erdogan's warning and the Turkey and Israel war of words
US entry restrictions on the Iranian team and African journalists at the World Cup

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-ceasefire-by-any-other-name/

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Middle East Roundtable: Hard Day for Bibi.

Thu, 04 Jun 2026 14:07:04 GMT

US and Iranian strikes resumed, with US attacks on Qeshm Island and Iranian fire that hit Kuwait's international airport, just as a peace deal had looked imminent. The panel asks whether a wind-down is still possible, and what Trump's reported call telling Netanyahu to back off Lebanon means for the US-Israel relationship and for Netanyahu's election prospects. They also discuss Oman and the UAE, the IRGC's grip on Tehran, Israel's push north in Lebanon and a looming fertilizer crisis.

In this episode:

Strikes on Qeshm Island, Iranian fire on Kuwait and the logic of lateral escalation
Reports on the UAE's strikes on Iran and Oman's possible role in Hormuz tolls
Why a drawdown looks unlikely: Hormuz, the nuclear file and Lebanon
The IRGC's tightening grip, a reported presidential resignation bid, the leader's return
Israel's advance north of the Litani and the Trump-Netanyahu call
Israeli backlash to Netanyahu, the fertilizer crisis and a more hardline region

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-hard-day-for-bibi/

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Middle East Roundtable: Deal or No Deal?

Fri, 29 May 2026 03:34:57 GMT

US-Iran negotiations are moving back and forth over a draft memorandum, with the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's highly enriched uranium as the main obstacles. The panel disagrees on whether Iran's toll system, which the IRGC says 33 ships paid in one day, can survive any deal or would force the US to keep its blockade. They also weigh Pakistan's role as mediator, Trump's call for Arab states to join the Abraham Accords, a missed Starlink offer for Iran, and a long digression on China, Japan and Taiwan.

In this episode:

What Iranian state media says is in the draft memorandum
Hormuz tolls: 33 ships paid in a day and whether the US can accept them
Iran's demand for $24 billion in frozen funds
Why Qatar may replace Pakistan as lead negotiator
China, Japan and the timeline for a move on Taiwan
Trump's options for Iran's enriched uranium and the Abraham Accords demand

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-deal-or-no-deal/

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Middle East Roundtable: Insider Trading, Ceasefire Fading.

Fri, 22 May 2026 13:11:59 GMT

Donald Trump says he called off renewed strikes on Iran at the request of Gulf states, though some Gulf officials deny any such request. The panel asks whether the threats are a bluff, whether trading ahead of his announcements points to insider trading, and how far Iran could extend the war after the IRGC's warning, including undersea cables, a drone strike on the UAE's nuclear plant and a reported plan to free Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They end on Iraq's new prime minister and the Iran-backed militias.

In this episode:

Trump's called-off strikes and the dispute over what the Gulf states asked for
Why threats and blockade have not forced concessions from Tehran
Market-moving announcements, insider trading and congressional stock trades
The IRGC's threat to go beyond the region, the Hay network and the undersea cables
The drone strike on the UAE nuclear plant and the report of a plan to install Ahmadinejad
Iraq's new prime minister and the Iran-backed militias

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-insider-trading-ceasefire-fading/

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Middle East Roundtable: Rude Neighbors.

Fri, 15 May 2026 13:59:14 GMT

President Trump says the peace talks are on life support after tossing out another Iranian proposal, and the ceasefire looks close to breaking down. The panel asks who actually holds power in Tehran, how long Iran can keep producing oil with its storage nearly full under the US blockade, and how inflation and the November midterms weigh on Washington. They also discuss reports that Saudi Arabia and the UAE struck Iran, and whether the war is realigning the Gulf and Israel.

In this episode:

Rejected Iranian proposals and the Strait of Hormuz sovereignty and tolls dispute
The IRGC's Vahidi gatekeeping access to the supreme leader
Iran's filling oil storage under the blockade, estimated at two weeks to three months
Inflation, gas prices, midterm pressure and the War Powers Act
Reports of Saudi and Emirati strikes on Iran and a failed IRGC landing attempt off Kuwait
Rival Gulf and regional axes, and whether Saudi normalization with Israel is coming

With Evan Moloney and Kyle Moran. Wilfred Waimiri is away on assignment.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-rude-neighbors/

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Middle East Roundtable: Strait Chaos.

Thu, 07 May 2026 15:20:44 GMT

Reports of a one-page US-Iran memorandum collided with the launch of a Persian Gulf Strait Authority site that collects tolls for the IRGC. The panel asks whether Washington should have answered Iranian strikes on the UAE more forcefully, and whether the JCPOA or Trump's exit from it is to blame. They also go through the authority's seven shipping conditions, American coverage of the war, Syria's fragility, Jordanian airstrikes and the debate over Reza Pahlavi's citizenship oath.

In this episode:

The Axios memorandum report, oil markets and the Persian Gulf Strait Authority site
Iran's strikes on the UAE, Project Freedom and whether the US should retaliate
Whether the JCPOA or Trump's withdrawal from it set the stage for the war
The authority's seven transit conditions and why tolls look unworkable
How American media covers Iran, and Iran's rationality as an actor
Syria's fragility, Jordanian airstrikes and Reza Pahlavi's US citizenship oath

With Wilfred Waimiri and Kyle Moran.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-strait-chaos/

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Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Middle East Roundtable: Rising Pressure All Around.

Mon, 04 May 2026 13:47:39 GMT

With the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz holding, Iran is running short of space to store crude, and the panel asks whether that tips the balance toward Washington. They look at the costs of Iran's long internet blackout and the difficulty of knowing what Iranians think, then turn to Lebanon, where Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri disagree on whether the state can disarm Hezbollah or must live with it. The episode also covers Iraq's new prime minister designate and the first trial of an Assad-era official in Syria.

In this episode:

A Trump-ordered extended blockade and mines in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran running out of space to store crude oil
A 60-day internet blackout and the cost of regime-approved reporting
Whether Lebanon can disarm Hezbollah or has to live with it
Iraq's businessman prime minister designate and the Popular Mobilization Forces
The trial of Assad's cousin Atef Najib in Syria

With Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-rising-pressure-all-around/

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Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Middle East Roundtable: I Blockade You, You Blockade Me

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 18:24:14 GMT

The United States has extended its ceasefire with Iran indefinitely, but Iran skipped the Islamabad talks over the US blockade and both sides are now interdicting ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The panel asks who is better placed to wait the other out, and what a divided Iranian leadership means for negotiations. They also cover the first direct Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington, Iran-backed militias and the prime ministerial deadlock in Iraq, and reported depletion of US interceptor stockpiles.

In this episode:

The indefinite ceasefire extension and Iran's absence from the Islamabad talks
Divisions in Tehran and the unclear role of Mojtaba Khamenei
Rival US and Iranian blockades in Hormuz and the strain on Gulf economies
Lebanon and Israel negotiating in Washington while Hezbollah rejects the terms
Iran-backed militias in Iraq and the fight over who becomes prime minister
Reported depletion of US THAAD, Patriot and Tomahawk stocks and the risk of renewed war

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-i-blockade-you-you-blockade-me/

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Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Middle East Roundtable: JD Vance's No Good, Terrible, Very Bad Week

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 13:26:37 GMT

US Vice President JD Vance led Iran negotiations that collapsed after a marathon 21-hour session. The panel asks why the two sides were so far apart, what the US blockade of Iranian ports has done to shipping through Hormuz, and whether any off-ramp remains. They also consider the Gulf and European split over Iran, Israel's aims in Lebanon, China's limited role, and another round of talks expected in Islamabad.

In this episode:

Why the 21-hour Iran talks failed and why Vance may have been sent
A US blockade of Iranian ports, not of the whole strait
Drifting Iranian mines and almost no traffic on the Iranian or Omani routes
Economic damage from stuck ships and the threat to the Red Sea
Europe's emphasis on diplomacy against the Gulf states' skepticism
Israel's aims in Lebanon and China's rhetoric-only role

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-jd-vances-no-good-terrible-very-bad-week-2/

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Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co

Middle East Roundtable: When is a Ceasefire Not a Ceasefire?

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 07:21:31 GMT

Trump's two-week pause with Iran came with no agreement on whether it covers Lebanon, and Israeli strikes on Beirut began within a day. The panel asks whether the ceasefire can hold until talks in Islamabad, and who has won the war so far. They weigh Iran's gains over Hormuz against the costs of striking its Gulf neighbors, the Iranian public's mood, the US and Israeli plan for an uprising and Kurdish role, and the Venezuela hangover behind the planning.

In this episode:

Disputed ceasefire scope on Lebanon, and the rival 10-point and 15-point plans
Who won so far: Iran's leverage over Hormuz against a Gulf now aligned with Washington
Iranians under the ceasefire, human chains and the limits of an uprising
Shifting US war aims, the Kurdish plan and the Venezuela hangover
Whether Iran acts rationally, and why it hit the UAE so hard
Israel's strike on Beirut, Hezbollah's standing and whether Washington stays engaged

With Evan Moloney, Kyle Moran and Wilfred Waimiri.

Full episode, transcript and more reporting: https://fronts.co/podcast/middle-east-roundtable-pilot/

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Fronts: independent reporting and analysis on conflict, defense and security. fronts.co