---
title: "How Useless is the Spanish Military?"
description: "Spain is NATO's biggest underperformer relative to its economic power. Despite having Europe's fifth-largest economy and a strategically vital location guarding the Mediterranean, Madrid consistently underfunds its military and recently refused alliance-wide spending increases."
url: https://fronts.co/videos/how-useless-is-the-spanish-military.md
canonical: https://fronts.co/videos/how-useless-is-the-spanish-military/
datePublished: 2026-10-22T19:00:46.000Z
dateModified: 2026-10-22T19:00:46.000Z
author:
  - name: Fronts Staff
    url: https://fronts.co/authors/fronts-team/
publisher: Fronts
type: NewsArticle
language: en
access: members
isAccessibleForFree: false
tokens: 9318
---

<!-- aeo:section start="lede" -->
A team is only as strong as its weakest link, and in the transatlantic NATO

alliance, there

are a few nations that, if we're being totally honest, are really pulling their

weight.

Iceland, for example, doesn't even have a standing military, while Slovenia is

now

the single, low aspender by percent of GDP across the alliance.

Belgium hosts NATO's headquarters, but is, in practice, a bit of a freeloader,

contributing

only minimal military capability of its own, and very few of the command or

administrative

capabilities that you'd expect from the headquarters nation.

But across the entire alliance, there might be no nation less impressive as a

NATO member

than Spain.

Unlike those other countries, Spain has the population, and the economy, to be

a military

powerhouse.

It has the geostrategically significant location, as NATO's stoic watchmen over

the mouth

of the Mediterranean Sea.

But when, in 2025, NATO nations chose to boost defence spending under US

pressure, and take

a much-needed step to raise defence budgets to 5% of their respective GDP,

Spain was

the only country in the alliance to refuse.

Instead of stepping up and leveraging the power of the fifth-largest European

economy

on this side of the Ukraine war, Spain decided to carve out an exemption.

And that dodgy maneuver, one that got US President Donald Trump to try and

throw Spain

out of the alliance, is only the start.

Of all of Europe's major militaries, none have been so terribly, consistently

underwhelming

as the Spanish to the point that it's worth asking, where the Spain is a drag

on the entire

NATO alliance.

Now before we get into the details on the shoddy state of the Spanish military,

it's

important that we take the time to emphasise that, whoever's fault this might

be, it certainly

isn't the fault of Spanish troops.

Like the military personnel of any other nation, the people who comprise the

Spanish armed

forces, quite obviously, have the interests of their country at heart.

They may be under-resourced, underpaid, ignored, kept on the sidelines, and

suffering from understandably

low morale as a result, but the problems with the Spanish military originate

with the people

in charge of those troops, not with the troops themselves.

And we should also make it clear that even though we're not going to go out of

our way

today to be nice about the capabilities of the Spanish military, we're not

about to

go full Donald and argue that the other alliance members should, quoting Trump

himself, throw

them out of NATO.

Spain is, after all, a full and complete country with distinct and complex

national interests,

and there are plenty of legitimate reasons that a country might choose not to

focus as

much attention on one area, in this case, its military, in order to focus on

others.

More is Spain technically obligated to make decisions in NATO's collective

interest,

whether by building its military more broadly, or going along with the rest of

the alliance

to raise its defence spending to 5%.

This is a situation that deserves to be handled with a bit of nuance, because

Spain truly

is not engaged in some outright betrayal of its treaty partners.

Instead, Spain's position within the 32-member NATO alliance is that a stick in

the mud.

The geopolitical equivalents of that one friend who refuses to even dip their

toes in the

pool when you've invited them and your 30 other friends over for a clearly

advertised

pool party.

So, there's really no better place to start explaining Spain's longer-term

military struggles

than with that refusal to raise defence spending alongside the rest of the

alliance.

For other NATO members, that decision was a response to two key threats that

impact the

vast majority of the NATO alliance.

The influence of Donald Trump on American foreign policy and on America's

posture toward its

transatlantic allies and the threat of an expansionist Russia that appears

interested

in a future continental war.

But when we try to explain Spain's decision to refuse the 5% commitment, the

country's

disinterest in fighting Russia is fairly easy to explain.

Spain is among the European NATO members positioned furthest from the Russian

mainland, furthest

from Russia's areas of naval operation, and furthest from Russia's largest

sphere of

influence across the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East.

Spain is on the far side of the European continent, where there are no state-

level threats coming

from Northern Africa, none from within the Mediterranean Sea, and certainly no

threat

of direct military force from across the Atlantic, Greenland situation on with

standing.

Spain does not feel the urgency of Russian aggression in the same way that

Poland, Finland,

or Germany, even France and the UK do.

So, the Spanish leaders have emphasised it doesn't make much sense for the

country

to take money out of its robust social services, its infrastructure, or its

ongoing efforts

to address a range of domestic issues in order to fight a faraway enemy where

the threat is

still somewhat abstract.

The other side of the equation is of course the Donald Trump situation, where

most NATO

members chose to respond to Trump's demands, blaming the rest of the alliance

for freeloading

and taking advantage of the US by doing whatever they could to placate America

's commander-in-chief,

Spain didn't.

And placating America is a tried-and-true weapon in the alliance's arsenal

these days.

I mean, just ask Secretary-General Mark Rutter, for whom our warfront steam

pledges, to never

stop mentioning the time that he called Trump "Daddy."

"Daddy has to sometimes do strong language, do against the strong language."

You're welcome, Mr. Rutter.

Spain, however, isn't led by Mark Rutter, or ahead of state he thinks like he

does.

Spain is led by one Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, and in Sanchez's world, Trump

's

5% demand was an opportunity to be on what he seems to believe will be the

right side

of history.

To explain why Sanchez has gone about this in the way that he has, we've got to

understand

a little bit about Spanish domestic politics.

First, Sanchez is a proud leftist and a member of Spain's largest party of

social democrats,

as well as the head of a worldwide association called Socialist International.

Politically speaking, Trump and Sanchez might be the most polar opposite

leaders in NATO

right now.

And Sanchez is not shy about opposing Trump publicly, especially when it comes

to Trump's

focus on military affairs.

Spain has pointedly refused to play any part in Trump's war against Iran, even

refusing

the US access to key bases.

And Sanchez is a harsh critic of Israel's actions in Gaza and elsewhere, openly

calling

the nation a, quote, "genocidal state."

Sociologically and practically, Sanchez refuses Trump's demands to redistribute

Spain's

money for what Trump thinks is important, partially because that allows Sanchez

to repudiate

Trump's entire approach to the rest of the world.

But the other thing that we need to understand on the domestic side is that

Sanchez is actually

quite weak in his own country.

His government is facing serious pressure from rising far-right and anti-

establishment

parties with recent elections at the regional level, suggesting that Sanchez

might be in

serious trouble when Spain's next national vote takes place in May of 2027.

His ruling party faces myriad scandals, including some that impact his own in a

circle, and

even his wife.

The Spanish Parliament is perpetually gridlocked.

Some of Sanchez's most important social reforms are stalling.

His government coalition is held together with duct tape and rubber bands.

And his decision to pardon Catalan's separatists has resulted in enduring

resentment toward

him.

But we even mentioned the recent surge of tens of thousands of migrants into

the Spanish

autonomous city of Seyuta, a crisis for which Sanchez has taken much of the

blame.

Meanwhile, Sanchez is entirely aware that a defense budget increase would be

among the

least popular moves that he could make, with one 20-25 poll counting 58% of

Spaniards opposed

to spending more on defense, and only 14% in support of really significant

investments

in the military.

So, Spain happens to be led by a guy, since 2018, who's chronically embattled

on domestic

affairs in his own parliament.

But he's also been given a pretty significant gift by Donald Trump in the

opportunity to

gain easy, reliable political points and defend the interests and preferences

of his

own political base.

He gets to score those points by not taking actions that would be unpopular at

home anyway,

like slashing social programs, reducing benefits, and engaging in a military

build-up on the

premise that Spain would use its armed forces to fight Russia, despite Moscow

being some

3,500 kilometers and an entire continent away from Madrid.

So, for Sanchez, and his political allies, the choice is clear.

Fight for an exemption that most Spaniards will ultimately be pleased with

while picking

a geopolitical battle that Sanchez wins, just by being the guy who's willing to

step

into the ring and fight.

Spain's place in the alliance is safe.

After all, the European countries wouldn't ever vote to expel Spain, since that

would

open the door for Trump to try and reshape the alliance in much larger ways

without

Europe's support.

And without Europe's support, the US has no recourse within the alliance itself.

Now, of course, this episode isn't just about Spain's current leadership being

unwilling

to support its native allies on equal terms.

The Spanish military has become so ineffectual from a process that began many

years ago and

is still playing out today.

But before we explain that process, we'd like to pause this episode to tell you

all

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Again, that's France.co, check it out, and now let's get back to Spain.

To find the origin of the endemic problems with the Spanish military, we've got

to

go back to Spain's transition to democracy, culminating with its first peaceful

transfer

of executive power in the modern era in 1982.

If that sounds rather late for a major European democracy to be peacefully

transitioning power,

well, that would be because outside of Spain, it's easy to forget the part of

Spanish history

where the country was ruled by Francisco Franco with an iron fist.

From 1939 to his death in 1975, Franco ran a totalitarian fascist regime, one

that didn't

ultimately join the Axis powers in World War II, and so doesn't really leave as

much

of an impression as Germany or Italy in the public consciousness today, but it

was still

a totalitarian dictatorship, one where Franco relied on the military as part of

the foundation

of his rule.

After Franco's death, the Spanish military's reputation was stained by his

legacy, and that

reputation only got worse during the years between Franco and that

aforementioned transition

of power.

Between an attempted coup by elements of the Spanish Armed Forces and the Civil

Guard

was in 1981, a wave of neo-fascist terror groups with deep links to state

intelligence

and national police, and the ongoing destruction of the Basque separatist

insurgency, the Spanish

people had really had enough of their military by the time the transition was

over.

Many of Spain's generals had embarrassed themselves and their country with

their conduct in the

post-Franco years, and the majority of the country was quite skeptical of the

military's

intentions.

As author Raphael Martinez put it in a book on the subject in 2024, quote, "In

the 1980s,

the Army was one of the most reviled institutions.

The military was considered inept, and all Francoist," end quote.

Worse yet, Spain had spent decades geobilitically isolated and kept out of the

high-quality

arms market, meaning that by the early 80s, most of Spain's military equipment

was badly

outdated or of poor, domestically-made quality.

The military leadership had spent many years fat and happy, but that was

because under

Franco and in the interim years, there was nobody to fight and nobody to push

around,

but the Spanish people.

After Spain turned the page and settled into democratic rule, the joint NATO,

and in principle,

NATO membership gave Madrid a clear list of improvements to make, but the money

didn't

follow, or at least not enough money for Spain to really revitalize its armed

forces.

Instead, Spain was forced to try and make wholesale changes across a variety of

areas

of concern all at once with very limited resources to do so.

The country had to reform a military from a fascist regime tentpole into a NATO

-style

fighting force, while also modernizing its equipment and operating principles

while also

moving over to NATO standards and gathering interoperable hardware.

And they had to do this, while also learning how to listen and act on the

instructions

of a fully civilian democratic government.

But to give an idea of just how little money was flowing into the Spanish

military's coffers,

recall that before the recent reforms, NATO asked that its members spend 2% on

defense.

Spain, however, only crossed the 1% threshold in 2021 and spent as low as 0.8%

on defense

as recently as 2016.

The 90s were a better time for the Spanish armed forces, with spending over 2%

around

the end of the Cold War.

But the figure dipped below 2% in 1995, and the 2000s were consistent mostly in

how dismal

they were, with 1.2% spending being the norm year over year.

Our story is told "again" when we look at Spain's arsenal.

Within the NATO alliance, the countries with the closest GDP to Spain are

Canada and Turkey.

And when we compare Spain against those two counterparts, the differences are

stunning.

We'll stick with conventional military equipment, since all three nations have

had decades to

build up their arsenals, as opposed to the new age challenges of, say, drones

or electronic

warfare capability.

Spain relies on a total of around 270 main battle tanks in its arsenal, with

the most

modern having been introduced to global service in 2002.

Turkey, meanwhile, fields around 750 modern main battle tanks, 1,600 older

models, and

it's planning to upgrade with 1,000 copies of a highly advanced South Korean-

based tank

that it's building on its own soil.

Canada doesn't have nearly as many as Turkey or Spain, but it's also on a

totally different

continent, with no land enemies to fight in the next few decades, barring a

Trump annexation

of Alberta, or Quebec, of course.

On artillery, Spain possesses just under 100 self-propelled houses, and will

eventually

receive a dozen multiple rocket launchers, whereas Turkey has around 1,100 self

-propelled

artillery pieces and around 100 modern multiple rocket launchers.

Even Canada's waiting on an order of high mass systems that are over twice as

large

as Spain's eventual rocket launcher fleet.

On the water, meanwhile, Spain's got enough warships, that its forces mean

something,

but there are many, many caveats that come along with that.

Spain is one of a small handful of nations to sail an aircraft carrier, the

relatively

small Juan Carlos I, which could fly 25-harrier aircraft at maximum load.

Spain sells a total of 11 frigates, 60 miners, and two dozen patrol craft,

along with two

attack submarines.

But most of its warships, including all but one of its 11 frigates, were built

before

2010, with only five new ships on the way to replace them.

Its two submarines, meanwhile, will be replaced with a fleet of just four amid

Spain's military

upgrades.

Canada, meanwhile, sails four hunter-killer submarines, and expects to raise

their number

to 12.

While Canada's 12 frigates are all relatively elderly, it's replacing them with

15 destroyers,

plus a new fleet of 16-20 ice-hardened corvettes to join them.

As for Turkey, the nation sails 14 operational submarines, with another four on

the way, plus

17 frigates, with seven more on the way, and its recently commissioned its

first drone

carrier using the same base model as Spain's aircraft carrier.

Turkey is currently building its own aircraft carrier, slated to be over double

the size

of Spain's, and it's working on its own fleet of eight homemade guided missile

destroyers,

plus a totally new class of submarines under development.

And in the air, even though Spain keeps up with its contemporaries a bit better

on paper,

that parity disappears when you dig into the details.

Spain flies more than 130 combat aircraft, a combination of American-made F-A-

18 hornets,

and the Delta Wing Eurofighter.

That's comparable, if not a bit superior, to Turkey's current combat air fleet,

which

includes well over 200 F-16s and 30 heavily upgraded Cold War-era F-4s.

Canada, meanwhile, flies the American Hornet, but it's the only aircraft in

Canadian combat

service with just 85 operational.

But again, Canada and Turkey are each working to improve their respective

fleets quickly,

while Spain is at best lagging behind.

Canada is currently waiting on an order of 88 F-35s with the first group of

four set to

arrive before the year's end.

There's an ongoing debate in Canada over whether or not to replace some of the

F-35s

with Swedish grip and fighters, but these two would be a substantial upgrade

over the

F-A-18, albeit in different ways than the F-35.

Turkey, meanwhile, is waiting on its first 20 copies of its indigenously

designed fifth-generation

stealth fighter, the Khan, with plans to acquire a total of 300 of the aircraft

by the time

production wraps up.

Turkey's also waiting on 44 Eurofighters, including 20 of the latest version,

Tranche

V, along with 40 of the newest Model F-16s from the United States, and a

potential invitation

to the F-35 program.

Spain, meanwhile, stung the rest of the world in 2025 when it announced that it

would not

acquire the F-35 at all, abandoning its plan to replace the F-A-18.

Instead, Spain put all its chips on the F-Kass, a sixth-generation fighter

program it was

a part of alongside powerhouse partners, France and Germany.

But then, this year, the F-Kass program collapsed, with no word yet on what

Spain's going to

do.

Nor are Spain's current combat aircraft particularly modern or particularly

capable.

Its hornets finished their latest upgrades all the way back in 2013, and its

newest Eurofighters,

just 20 of them, are from a couple of iterations ago.

Finally, Spain's non-combat fleet also falls badly behind.

It's slated to fly just three jet-powered air-to-air refuelers, along with 20

much smaller, lower

capacity prop-driven refuelers, and its largest air-lifter, the C-295, an

aircraft with less

than half the payload, and significantly inferior range, compared to the C-130J

super Hercules.

Put that against Canada, with its 17 C-130Js, its five copies of America's C-17

strategic

air-lifter, and an anticipated 12 jet-powered air-to-air refuelers, and it is

no contest.

The same goes for Turkey, but we trust you get the point.

For the personnel of the Spanish military, the result is, unfortunately, quite

predictable.

The morale of the armed forces is chronically low, driven by a combination of

low wages,

persistent understaffing, and are difficulty getting new recruits to sign up.

Spanish troops are, or in the hole, quite good at what they do.

Their reputation among NATO members is quite strong, and they certainly aren't

lacking

for discipline or professionalism, but most of their work over the last few

decades has

been on humanitarian missions, and the military is well aware that the Spanish

people like

it that way.

When asked in 2025, Spaniards told the Euro-barometer that only about 20% of

the country considered

defence to be a priority, a score so low that only one other European nation,

Malta, could

match it.

Quoting an article on the subjects published by Le Monde, "If Spaniards have a

positive

opinion of the Army today, it's because it's seen primarily as a force for

putting

out fires, building field hospitals, as during the COVID-19 pandemic, and

conducting international

peacekeeping operations."

In Parliament, members of Pedro Sanchez' own party have recently called Spain

to consider

leaving NATO outright, especially after Spain's recent dust-ups with Donald

Trump.

And perhaps most damaging of all, according to a Gallup poll taken in 2023,

just 29% of

Paul Spaniards said they would be willing to personally fight for their country.

So despite the best efforts of the troops who make up the Spanish military,

Madrid's

armed forces are in woefully poor shape for a country of Spain's size,

development and

economic power.

Judging by the state of its most directly comparable peers in the NATO alliance, or by

countries like South Korea, Poland, Sweden or Israel, that have significantly

less wealth

at their disposal, Spain should be a lot stronger than it is.

Given its stature as a NATO member, in fact, it should have a well-developed

indigenous

arms industry and a large and well-compensated military.

The fact that it doesn't, of course, is down to Spanish realities that are on

the

whole understandable, along history of military-enforced fascist rule, and geop

olitically speaking

a lack of natural predators as well as domestic priorities that Spaniards

believe should take

precedence.

But that isn't to say that Spain is some geopolitical oasis where it could

simply swear

off a military like Iceland or Ireland and enjoy the spoils of its relative

prosperity.

In fact, Spain's location and the realities of the immediate vicinity suggest

that this

is a country that could have a serious impact if it were to throw its weight

around.

We should specify here that we're speaking purely from a Spanish vantage point,

thinking

about ways to act in Spain's cold, hard national interest.

But from that perspective, just look at what happened this summer in the

enclave of sweeter.

Spain is NATO's gateway to the African continent, where along Africa's

Mediterranean coast

and through to the Sahel, Europe runs into countless challenges that it doesn't

really

have the means to stop.

Take the endless love of migrants, taking their chances in desperate attempts

to cross

the sea.

Take the overlapping transnational insurgencies of the Sahel, especially the

nations of Mali,

Burkina Faso and Niger.

Take the generations-long conflict in western Sahara, the modern day split in

Libya, the

convergence of bitter conflicts that ravage the nations of Nigeria, or the

simmering cold

rivalry between Morocco and Algeria.

A more militarily powerful Spain, with the means and vested interest in putting

its

finger on the scale, could be far more active in helping to contain, manage, or

better yet

prevent any of those breakdowns from taking place.

Or if a fair is an africa word enough, Spain is the NATO power that's the most

natural

fit to guard the Mediterranean's western opening.

This isn't a especially tall task in the modern day between the proliferation

of sea

drones and other asymmetric threats, and Russia's growing interest in probing

NATO from all

directions at once.

The British can help out, of course, watching from the overseas territory of

Gibraltar,

but the fact that Gibraltar and the British military are so central to scaring

the choke

point is yet another instance where modern day Spain has essentially just

dropped the

ball.

The British have had Gibraltar for over 300 years now, and it certainly made

sense that

the territory was the prime NATO outpost to watch the western Mediterranean

during Spain's

Francoist days.

But now the Francoist days are long gone.

The British military has more than enough rebuilding to do, and it would be

really nice if Spain

could at least take care of the geo-strategically vital choke points that is on

its doorstep.

So go back to the title question of this episode, how useless is the Spanish

military?

Well, very useless indeed, and we'll say it once more.

We don't intend to insult Spain's troops here, or understate their ability to

do the

very best they can with what they've been provided.

But in a much larger sense, Spain is a nation that simply declined to build a

military that

benefits its size, its influence, or its economic power.

And while that decision would be easy enough to excuse if Russia were the only

threat that

the NATO alliance was facing, that simply isn't the case.

Alliance members in Europe faced complex challenges that Spain could be working

to address pro

actively, helping itself and its treaty partners.

Just as much as Spain's useless military is Spain's fault, it's also the fault

of

the entire NATO alliance, an organization that's been complacent for decades

and is

now trying to give itself sufficient shock therapy through the spectra of

Russian aggression

that its member states will decide to wake up.

This gets a broader point that we've made in the past here on Warfronts, and

that perhaps

will present as a case of argument of its own one day.

Just let us know in the comments if you're interested in seeing this concept

explored.

NATO has constrained itself for far too long to narrow-minded approaches to

collective

defence, where European member states are expected to all have basically the

same military

proportional to their size, with basically the same capabilities as each other.

That doesn't make sense for any NATO nation.

These are countries with different climates and geographies, different

neighbours,

different strengths and weaknesses and different geopolitical motivations.

They could each excel in certain areas, and those areas of strength will vary

depending

on what country we're talking about, but instead, NATO pushes those countries

into a

one-size-fits-all approach that has never come close to the alliance's

potential.

And nowhere have the results been worse in the dangerous and unpredictable 2020

s than in Spain,

where a country and its people are being asked to care very much about fighting

a threat that

isn't close to them, with a rebuilt military that closely resembles a legacy

they'd like to leave behind.

So instead of ending this episode on a sour note, pooping the Spanish military

and then

fading to black, let's present an alternative vision for a reformed, re-energ

ized Spanish military.

Let's take Spanish priorities and cultural memories, fuse them with an

understanding

of Spain's actual geo-strategic and domestic situation, and work out a way that

the Spanish

armed forces could look to enhance both Spain's own security and the security

of the NATO alliance.

And humble request to any Spaniards in the comments do let us know whether or

not this

would be a Spanish military that you'd be more interested in supporting than

the one you've got

right now. This is a thought experiment, after all, so please let us know how

it turns out.

And let's begin with force composition.

The question of which of its armed forces Spain chooses to build up and develop

Rather than a military optimise for homeland defence to guard over a country

that really

doesn't need much direct guarding over, Spain is an ideal candidate to build

versatile,

relatively light expeditionary forces. Again, a proactive response to the

Mediterranean and to

North and Sahelian Africa gives Spain an option to intervene in crises, address

conflicts,

or disarray humanitarian aid before those complex problems reach Spanish or any

other European soil.

In Spain's case, an expeditionary military would also help to keep the military

mostly off Spain's own soil for political reasons and historical ones.

For the many Spanish citizens who would prefer their military mostly out of

sight and mostly out

of mind, but would still like to ensure as safe and secure a country as

possible, a military

that's heavy on naval capabilities and air power, and deployed mostly in the

Spanish south,

or at generally peaceful overseas bases, maybe a substantial improvement.

The Spanish Civil Guard, one of the country's most trusted public institutions,

can handle

affairs back home. On the water, Spanish investments in surface warships would

go a long way to

lock down the Strait of Gibraltar, relieve NATO pressure on British troops, and

guarantee security

in the western Mediterranean. In World West Spain's military played a more

active role,

its naval responsibilities would be twofold. Keep watch over the natural gas

pipelines,

shipping routes, undersea data scables, and other key infrastructure built

through the sea,

and address the flow of people, weapons, drugs, and other goods being smuggled

into the European

Union. That first task requires Spain to essentially pull long-term guard duty,

but an

on-ideal world provide very sophisticated guard duty. In today's world, that

means a

combination of surface warships that could provide layered air defense

capability,

small sea drones built to detect an intercept, other sea drones, and a densely

packed,

constantly monitored sensor environment to closely track what's happening on

and beneath the water

surface. To that end, Spain could invest in a small but powerful handful of

destroyers and

newer frigates along with in-house production for cheaper air defense assets

and sea drone

interceptors. As for maritime patrol to intercept smugglers, Spain could use a

somewhat larger fleet

of patrol craft, but even more helpful would be better intelligence gathering

and coordination.

So, as Spain builds out its sensors, a handful of additional patrol vessels

might be able to work

together with long-range, low-flying, relatively inexpensive light attack and

surveillance aircraft.

Brazil's Superticano, for example, fills a similar role over the Amazon,

and several Turkish-made drone models could do the same if Spain prefers to go

the unmound route.

And finally, Spain may see real value in rethinking its commitment to its

aircraft carrier,

the Juan Carlos I. The Spanish military's value to Madrid and also to NATO

would be

realized in our scenario by guarding Spain's immediate vicinity, making power-

projecting

carrier capability significantly less relevant. And in a very similar vein, an

expeditionary

Spanish ground and air force would each be focused on deploying with a

relatively light touch,

relying on highly trained, highly capable troops to work alongside partner

militaries across the

northern half of Africa. This is an area that NATO has largely neglected since

France withdrew

from its former colonial holdings a few years ago, and the results have been

disastrous.

The Islamic State is on the rise across the continent,

the al-Qaeda-linked insurgency Janim is running circles around the regional

military governments,

and in the absence of NATO support, Russia's paramilitary Africa Corps have had

all too

easy of a time stepping into the void. But the Africa are on top of the task,

and neither are any of the region's governments.

Least of all the regimes in Mali were 2026, as seen multiple nationwide blitzes

by Janim,

and an ethnic tower egg separatist alliance, or Niger, where in 2026, the

Islamic State has

grown in power, and the leadership barely survived a coup attempt last August.

Spain still needs a few combat aircraft to replace the aging F-A-18, now that

the F-35 is off the

table, and the F-cast program has fallen apart. But rather than seeking an all-

purpose replacement,

Spain may do well to consider a two-track model, a highly versatile,

rugged, easily maintained option to deploy into other countries, and a longer-

range heavy

strike aircraft that could be permanently based on Spanish soil and conduct

operations abroad

with air-to-air refueler support. Both would have to be proven in extreme heat

environments.

To that end, there's one aircraft model that stands out for each role. In

rugged deployments

of international forward-operating bases, Sweden's E-Grippen, known for its

resistance to environmental

extremes, including dust storms and extreme heat, as well as its ability to

land and take off on

roads and challenging airstrips, and disease manufacturing. That's a sharp

contrast to

say the F-16, an aircraft that notoriously requires mannequin runways and

complex maintenance procedures

to remain operational. For the longer-range role, there's the American-made F-

15EX,

a loud, heavy, but very capable fighter with a very range of nearly 4,000

kilometers when

it's outfitted with external fuel tanks. That's more than enough range to skip

on refills and reach

most of the western Sahel, as well as areas like Libya or western Sahara from

the port cities of

southern Spain. The F-15EX is highly sophisticated, and it's based on one of

the most desert-proven

combat aircraft of all time, the F-15 Eagle. And we should note here that

neither of the

Grippen nor the F-15EX are stealthy. But in Spain's case, stealth is sort of an

assumed necessity in

a NATO alliance, where every country is expected to fly a one-size-fits-all

military. In reality,

Spain's strategic challenges just don't demand stealth, aside from perhaps 10

or 20 copies of a

sixth-generation jet when they do become available. What Spain could consider,

however, is expanding

an order of low-cost, easy-to-maintain, propeller-attack craft like the Super T

ocano or America's

militarized crop duster, the Sky Raider, to further enhance the capabilities of

troops

sent to austere environments. And finally, the Spanish army, where, again,

Spain's current

strengths would suggest building a relatively small ground force,

bashed toward highly professional, light, versatile, elite infantry and

armoured units.

Those units would be expected to be added abroad, mostly to Africa, to build

Spain's

and NATO's footprints in areas where crises slowly bleed northward until the

fallout hit Spanish soil.

Here, Spain would need to counterbalance and chip away at the influence of

groups like

Russia's Africa Corps. But although the Africa Corps is relatively deeply enmes

hed in Mali,

Niger and Burkina Faso, Spain would not have a difficult time presenting itself

as a better

alternative. Spanish troops are far less prone to atrocities, far more willing

to actually train

partner militaries and advise them on the front lines, and they're within much

closer range of

consistent, high-caliber, fixed-wing air support. These troops could also carry

on a military mission

that ordinary Spaniards back home are far more comfortable with, distributing

humanitarian aid

and providing vital relief in ways that the Africa Corps really does not engage

with.

The Sahel's military regimes will probably remain committed to the Africa Corps

at least until those regimes collapse under their own weight.

But nations like Nigeria, Benin and Ghana could greatly benefit from Spanish

support,

and so could Libya and Algeria, where roughly 170,000 refugees already have

received Spanish

support in their exile from Western Sahara. Of course, reforms of this scale

would hardly be

easy for the Spanish military to accomplish. They would cost money and require

discussions that

would drag Spain's armed forces back into the public consciousness. But in

Spain, the military

status quo hasn't served anybody for a very long time, and the people of Spain

have just

as much of a right to be frustrated with the state of things as the people who

lead NATO nations.

All this, for a major European economy with real strategic challenges and

priorities,

positions at an ideal spot to focus its attention southward, while the rest of

the alliance focuses

on an expansionist enemy to the east. The Spanish military in its current form

is just about useless, both for itself and for its NATO partners. But it does

not have to be that way.

Trump, Sanchez, their successors, and the rest of the alliance can haggle over

spending percentages

for years to come. Or Spain and its allies can start finding ways to build a

Spanish military

that works better for everyone. Thank you for watching.
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