--- title: The Houthi Rebels Just Launched a Major Ground Campaign…And It Backfired Immediately. description: "Fronts video analysis of The Houthi Rebels Just Launched a Major Ground Campaign…And It Backfired Immediately, with context on conflict, defense, and security." url: https://fronts.co/videos/the-houthi-rebels-just-launched-a-major-ground-campaignand-it-backfired-immediat.md canonical: https://fronts.co/videos/the-houthi-rebels-just-launched-a-major-ground-campaignand-it-backfired-immediat/ datePublished: 2026-09-10T15:47:13.000Z dateModified: 2026-09-10T15:47:13.000Z author: - name: Simon Whistler url: https://fronts.co/authors/simon-whistler/ publisher: Fronts image: "https://media.fronts.co/cdn-cgi/image/width=1200,height=630,fit=cover,gravity=auto,quality=80,format=auto/images/articles/the-houthi-rebels-just-launched-a-major-ground-campaignand-it-backfired-immediat-4ea63d43.jpg" type: NewsArticle language: en access: members isAccessibleForFree: false tokens: 4398 --- Across six months of war in the Middle East, the world has been trying to avoid one of the worst case scenarios for this conflict, the entry of Yemen's Houthi rebels. Unusually well-armed for a non-state actor, loyal to Iran, and positioned perfectly to threaten the vital shipping lanes of the Red Sea, the Houthi rebels have the ability to threaten many billions of dollars' worth of maritime trade and collaborate with Iran to torch the global economy. Over the last few weeks, the world's worst fears have become true as the Houthis launch drones and missiles against their northern neighbor and bitter enemy Saudi Arabia. Then, just this past Thursday, the 3rd of September, the situation deteriorated even further as the Houthis launched a major ground offensive to expand their control over Yemen's west coast. Hundreds of fighters from both sides have already been confirmed dead, global oil prices have nearly crested past US$100 per barrel, and on Tuesday, Houthis rained hell upon Saudi Arabia in their largest series of strikes in years. 73 people were reported wounded, including women and children, as several key oil installations were set aflame. But if all of that sounds like the crisis is unrecoverable and Yemen's Houthi rebels are on the precipice of Middle East domination, well, think again. Despite the losses, despite the missiles, and despite the fact that the Houthi campaign is ongoing right now, Saudi Arabia and its Yemeni allies have a plan. Already a massive counteroffensive is underway, cutting in against the Houthis from all directions and taking advantage of a main thrust that's left Houthi forces exposed. There are no guarantees on how all of this will shake out, at least not yet. But if Yemen's internationally recognized government is to be believed, then this could be the beginning of the end for the Houthi rebels. Yemen's leaders and their Saudi allies don't just want to repel the Houthi offensive. They want to take back Yemen's capital city of Sana'a and end the Houthi threat once and for all. Cut and riposte At the outset of today's episode, we got to issue our usual disclaimer whenever we cover fast-moving global events like this one. Everything that we're going to discuss in this episode is accurate to the best of our knowledge and ability as of the start of day on Wednesday, the 8th of September, local time in Yemen. I don't know what the time is in Yemen, but it's 20 past 7 in the morning here in Prague. Obviously, the situation in the country is unfolding rapidly, and while it doesn't currently seem as if Sana'a is going to fall by the time you see this episode, well, you never know. Rest assured that if there have been any particularly massive developments, we'll be right back here to explain very soon. Now, the Houthi rebels have been operating in ways that suggested a wave of coming violence for quite a while now. Initially, the Houthis decided to sit on the sidelines for Iran's war with the United States and Israel instead of attacking the strategic Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint just off their own coastline and, in essence, closing down the southern entrance to the Red Sea. There were a few reasons for that decision. The Houthis known and suspected internal problems controlling their own population as well as money troubles, reduced weapons stockpiles, and the fact that even though the Houthis are allies of Iran, they're still an independent actor with their own priorities, much more so than other Iranian proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon. But ever since the memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran started to fall apart and Saudi Arabia bombed Sunar International Airport to try and hit a Houthi delegation to Iran aboard their aircraft, the Houthis have been escalating. They've attempted to impose a blockade against Saudi Arabian shipping traffic and launched strikes against Saudi oil installations and export terminals. On the ground, meanwhile, they've engaged in increasingly frequent skirmishers against the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which controls most of the country besides Houthi territory in the densely populated West. The Yemeni government and its military are, on the whole, quite weak, but they rely on the direct support of Saudi Arabia as well as alliances with Saudi-backed tribal militias. So from the Houthis' perspective, Saudi Arabia is the regional big bad, so to speak, and Riyadh uses the Yemeni government and the tribal militias as its proxy forces, just like Iran uses the Houthis. Now, the Houthis appear to have reached zero hour on Thursday, 3rd September, when, in the span of about a day, they moved substantial forces into position and began a ground offensive toward the city of Taiz. That's an important city for a few reasons, and it's important that we discuss it for just a moment, because it's been a thorn in the Houthis' side for years. Located in the southwestern corner of Yemen, Taiz was partially captured by the Houthis in 2015, but it's been disputed ever since, with the bulk of the city blockaded by the Houthis from positions they hold in some neighborhoods. In practical terms, Taiz has spent roughly the last decade under siege, with a stark, bombed-out no-man's land that overgrew years ago with vegetation. The city is home to nearly a million people, according to informal estimates, including large numbers of displaced people from elsewhere in Yemen. Nearby, the Houthis can capture strategically critical high ground that overlooks the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, where roughly 10% of all global trade volume passes through. With Taiz and the surrounding highlands under control, the Houthis could both monitor trade and naval traffic through the area and threaten it directly, using much better real-time intelligence than they currently obtain, with Taiz basically sitting as an obstacle to their line of sight. While reports from the front lines are spotty at best, the Houthis appear to have concentrated most of their forces for a concerted frontal assault toward the city. While they haven't focused in precisely on the city, they've instead decided to pursue a few secondary targets, including highland areas that the city's forces will struggle to protect directly and a key road that connects Taiz to the outside world. As of the time of writing, they've managed to reach that road and have likely established checkpoints and roadblocks at a minimum. They're also pushing toward the city of Mocha, which, yeah, if you're curious, is the origin of the name for Mocha coffee beans and the Mocha pot, but not the chocolatey latte. The city of Mocha is only home to an estimated 20,000 people or less, but it's the site of an important port that's been mostly out of use since the start of the war. The Houthis haven't been all that forward about why they want the port, but it is an ideal location to launch attacks using skiffs, motorboats, and even sea drones, as well as maintaining continuous line of sight across the roughly 90-degree bends of Yemen's coastline. The Houthi offensive appears to rely mostly on ground troops, with limited support for armored trucks, but the Houthis have managed to provide missile support, as evidenced by one strike that killed six civilians of the border bus in Thais. According to Agence France-Presse, 129 fighters were reported killed on Friday alone, with nearly 60 more on Saturday. And those numbers are most likely an undercount. the early momentum of the Houthi attack was clearly blunted by Saudi-backed defenders, the group doesn't appear likely to reach Thais within the next few days, it does appear poised to continue this campaign, at least for the near future. even with Thais under substantial pressure from the Houthi advance, Saudi-backed Yemeni government still had a few tricks up its sleeve. Over the last several months, our episodes on the region have occasionally mentioned the prospect of a Saudi-backed ground operation against the Houthis, possibly cutting northward along the coast, or possibly advancing directly on Houthi-held population centres. But those plans have mostly been an abstract concept. Until now, we can't say for certain whether the Saudi-backed forces have been laying the groundwork for a counter-offensive when the Houthi campaign happened to crop up, or whether they'd intended to wait for the Houthis to give them an opportunity. What is clear, however, is that in hindsight, the discussions around anti-Houthi operations were very real. The counter-attacks began on Monday, when Yemeni government forces launched waves of rocket attacks and drone strikes against Houthi positions across three provinces: Thais, Al-Beda, and Al-Jouf. The aerial attacks were then followed by ground operations, with the Yemeni coalition launching smaller but coordinated counter-offensives in several directions at once. The attacks appeared to be intended to confuse and distract Houthi forces, demanding that they pivot to defend part of their northern territory along the Saudi border, as well as trying to maintain the integrity of their southern push. And while the Houthi leadership condemned what it described as a Saudi-led escalation, the Yemeni government was clear about its ultimate objectives. According to the military spokesman, the operation will "restore Sana'a as a capital for all Yemenis" and "liberate Yemen from Houthi control." That is to say, the government seems to be setting expectations that this won't just be a limited counter-offensive or an operation to protect Taiz, Mocha, and the highlands overlooking the Bab al-Mandeb. Instead, they seem to believe that they can turn this moment into a decisive battle for Yemen's future. As for the Houthis, well, their response was decisive as it was bloody. That was the wave of overnight missiles and drone strikes headed into Tuesday morning, in which dozens of drones and a smaller but substantial number of missiles swarmed through to southern Saudi Arabia. The strikes focused on a Saudi Aramco facility at Jazan, which was observed burning half a day later via satellite imagery, as well as Saudi state oil sites in multiple locations. The Houthis also hit an airbase in the southern city of Qamis Mushait, home to about half a million people in the city proper. That military installation, King Khalid Air Base, is a hub for Saudi forces in their aerial operations against the Houthis. Saudi Arabia confirmed multiple hits against oil and gas facilities, and insiders admitted that the Houthis strikes had taken the Jazan refinery, usually responsible for 400,000 barrels of oil per day, totally out of commission. Seventy-three people were wounded in the strikes, including women and children, although nobody was killed. Final Showdown Despite the deep animosity on all sides of this ground campaign, Yemen's Houthi rebels, internationally recognized government, and Saudi Arabia can all agree on one thing. This confrontation has been a long time coming. The Houthis are clearly committed to the main thrust of their offensive. really want control over Yemen's southwestern coastline so that they can establish de facto authority over shipping traffic through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. succeed, they'll hand themselves immense leverage over the rest of the world and make themselves much more difficult to root out in a future round of open conflict. Yemeni government and the Saudis, meanwhile, didn't have to set expectations as high as the fall of Sana'a. was an entirely voluntary choice and one that speaks to both their confidence in their ability to handle this situation and the extent of the military planning that's led them to this moment. while, global energy prices are climbing, coming just short of $100 per barrel for Brent crude on Tuesday. But the Houthi rebels and their Iranian allies are happy to see that number go even higher. Saudis, meanwhile, temporary global instability in the oil market is just the price to pay for an oil-rich petrostate to engage in a dangerous kinetic conflict where its assets will be targeted. where the conflict goes from here, well, both sides have reason to believe that they could achieve their goals. start with the Saudi-backed counteroffensive, which seems to have caught the Houthis off guard. That counteroffensive is designed to challenge the Houthis in the areas where they're weakest, especially in large-scale military operations where the Houthis can't really fight asymmetrically, instead have to move and coordinate massive units while dealing with heavy firepower. Houthis are, on balance, actually rather talented fighters. their prior rounds of fighting against a Saudi-led coalition in the 2010s, select Houthi troops became the stuff of legend, with single fighters or tiny teams managing to engage far larger coalition forces in drawn-out costly retreats as they moved between multiple defensive positions and sniper nests that had been established in advance. when there's less opportunity to be creative and fight asymmetrically, Houthis tend to do a good bit worse, now they're facing large adversary units that can count on the support of long-range rocket attacks and air support. The Saudi-backed forces have taken full advantage of their combat edge, hammering Houthi positions in areas that the group clearly didn't think it would have to defend. Already, Yemeni forces have taken control of towns and villages that the Houthis have held for years. their conquests are still in dispute, but more and more of them have been verified thanks to videos that have been posted to social media and analyzed by open-source conflict trackers. One official from Yemen's information ministry claimed that dozens of Houthi fighters were captured in southern Hodeidah province, while another Yemeni source claimed that they captured the strategic district of Heis on the tri-border intersection of Hodeidah, Taiz, and the Ib provinces. leaders have repeatedly drawn attention to what they claim are Houthi miscalculations and overextensions, most likely referring to the Houthis' decision to send such a large force toward Taiz and the surrounding highlands, while failing to anticipate that it could be harassed from them. flanks, encircled, and perhaps even destroyed by a well-prepared adversary. At the same time, it does not appear that the Yemeni military has made substantial enough progress to begin a real cascade of defeats for the Houthis. Instead, they've mostly succeeded in either recapturing territory that the Houthis took during the first days of the recent offensive, or breaking through to less defended areas where the Houthis were vulnerable. Saudi air power has been active, including in retaliatory strikes after the Tuesday morning wave of Houthi drones and missiles, but their bombs haven't always been accurate, with the Houthis alleging that Saudi Arabia struck prison on Monday where 11 people were killed and 20 inmates are still missing. Saudi forces still haven't shown up on the ground, and as King's College London expert Andreas Craig explained Al-Monitor, quote, Saudi Arabia's immediate response is likely to remain measured, involving airstrikes, intelligence support, and reinforcement of Yemeni government forces, end quote. Given the Riyadh is trying to avoid being drawn into a more costly engagement, we can point out that the Yemen-aligned forces are coordinating quite well under the circumstances. The Yemeni military, their tribal militia allies, and their Saudi backers are successfully working in unison and pursuing common goals. But according to international observers who've tried to pass the data, the Saudi-backed forces suffer from inconsistencies in their troop quality and tactics, while the Houthis appear to be somewhat more unified and somewhat more capable of coordinating amongst themselves in a pinch. As regional expert and risk advisor Muhammad al-Bashar explained on X, quote, quote, the Houthis could suffer serious setbacks and territorial losses across one or multiple fronts, but there is still a long way to go before we can talk about them fully collapsing or folding, especially in their core strongholds in Sana'a and Siddhar, end quote. Regional expert Michael Knights agreed with that assessment, offering that the Houthis are, quote, serially poor at defending cities and coastal areas, but they would be harder to dislodge from highlands, end quote. As the time of writing, the death toll from the last week of violence has crested past 500, according to a running tally by Agence France-Presse. That number, however, is probably still an undercount as both sides try to downplay their losses and battles rage in relatively remote areas. The Houthis have responded to the Saudi-backed counteroffensive not by shifting into a defensive posture, but by escalating their own offensive and opening new lines of attack. Not only have they reached the road to Taiz and probably rendered it unusable, but over the last 72 hours, they've answered the Saudi-backed forces' multi-directional counteroffensive by sending relatively small but locally powerful units to cause trouble in new areas. For the Saudi-backed forces, there is, as expert analyst Thomas Van Lynch described it, quote, no shortage of ambition by the Yemeni army. But actually recapturing Sana'a and toppling Houthi rule is going to take quite a while, and if this counteroffensive ends up seriously threatening the Houthis' survival, it'll be because the conflict escalates much further than it already has.