--- title: "Is Belarus Planning to Attack Ukraine?" description: "Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code WARFRONTS at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/WARFRONTS Stay ahead of global conflicts with WarFronts Weekly. Get sharp, no-nonsense military analysis straight to your inbox. Subscribe: https://fronts.co/warfronts-weekly Get full conflict briefings, and members-only analysis at fronts.co https://fronts.co Join the community and discuss current flashpoints in real time: https://www.reddit.com/r/frontsco This video is #sponsored by Incogni. Love the content? Explore Simon's other YouTube channels: Megaprojects: https://www.youtube.com/@megaprojects9649 SideProjects: https://www.youtube.com/@Sideprojects Into The Shadows: https://www.youtube.com/@IntotheShadows Today I Found Out: https://www.youtube.com/@TodayIFoundOut Brain Blaze: https://www.youtube.com/@brainblaze6526 Casual Criminalist: https://www.youtube.com/@TheCasualCriminalist Decoding the Unknown: https://www.youtube.com/@decodingtheunknown2373 Places: https://www.youtube.com/@Places302 Celestium: https://www.youtube.com/@Celestium1234 HomeFronts: https://www.youtube.com/@homefronts Simon on social: Twitter: https://twitter.com/SimonWhistler Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/simonwhistler/ Sources: Kuleba interview (part transcribed on X): https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/2064083824640766278 Konrad Muzyka, X: https://x.com/konradmuzyka/status/2063007227468710173 Carnegie: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/05/belarus-ukraine-new-war ISANS, May update: https://isans.org/military/review-of-military-activity-in-belarus-april-2026.html The Times, March: https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/vladimir-putin-henchman-ukraine-belarus-border-xcrbphmh3 Times, June, interview with Belarusian exiled opposition leader: https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/sviatlana-tsikhanouskaya-putin-russia-nuclear-belarus-sf660n7cx Hudson Institute: https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/could-belarus-attack-ukraine-preparing-three-scenarios-luke-coffey MacDonald Laurier Institute: https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/belarus-is-becoming-europes-most-dangerous-blind-spot-yaroslav-baran-for-inside-policy/ Jamestown: https://jamestown.org/russia-and-belarus-preparing-for-escalation-with-ukraine-and-nato/ Fronts: https://fronts.co/article/europe-needs-to-defend-itself-against-russian-aggression/ Kyiv Post: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/77671 LeMonde: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/04/21/ukraine-belarus-tensions-rise-as-border-militarization-intensifies67526874.html ISW: https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26-2026/ Joni Askola, X: https://x.com/joniaskola/status/2064708381865042232" url: https://fronts.co/videos/warfronts-c8xqybaxum0.md canonical: https://fronts.co/videos/warfronts-c8xqybaxum0/ datePublished: 2026-06-16T17:30:39.000Z dateModified: 2026-06-16T17:30:39.000Z author: - name: Fronts Staff url: https://fronts.co/authors/fronts-team/ publisher: Fronts type: NewsArticle language: en access: members isAccessibleForFree: false tokens: 726 --- Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code WARFRONTS at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: http://incogni.com/WARFRONTS Stay ahead of global conflicts with WarFronts Weekly. Get sharp, no-nonsense military analysis straight to your inbox. Subscribe: https://fronts.co/warfronts-weekly Get full conflict briefings, and members-only analysis at fronts.co https://fronts.co Join the community and discuss current flashpoints in real time: https://www.reddit.com/r/frontsco This video is #sponsored by Incogni. Love the content? Explore Simon's other YouTube channels: Megaprojects: https://www.youtube.com/@megaprojects9649 SideProjects: https://www.youtube.com/@Sideprojects Into The Shadows: https://www.youtube.com/@IntotheShadows Today I Found Out: https://www.youtube.com/@TodayIFoundOut Brain Blaze: https://www.youtube.com/@brainblaze6526 Casual Criminalist: https://www.youtube.com/@TheCasualCriminalist Decoding the Unknown: https://www.youtube.com/@decodingtheunknown2373 Places: https://www.youtube.com/@Places302 Celestium: https://www.youtube.com/@Celestium1234 HomeFronts: https://www.youtube.com/@homefronts Simon on social: Twitter: https://twitter.com/SimonWhistler Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/simonwhistler/ Sources: Kuleba interview (part transcribed on X): https://x.com/Mylovanov/status/2064083824640766278 Konrad Muzyka, X: https://x.com/konradmuzyka/status/2063007227468710173 Carnegie: https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2026/05/belarus-ukraine-new-war ISANS, May update: https://isans.org/military/review-of-military-activity-in-belarus-april-2026.html The Times, March: https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/vladimir-putin-henchman-ukraine-belarus-border-xcrbphmh3 Times, June, interview with Belarusian exiled opposition leader: https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/sviatlana-tsikhanouskaya-putin-russia-nuclear-belarus-sf660n7cx Hudson Institute: https://www.hudson.org/national-security-defense/could-belarus-attack-ukraine-preparing-three-scenarios-luke-coffey MacDonald Laurier Institute: https://macdonaldlaurier.ca/belarus-is-becoming-europes-most-dangerous-blind-spot-yaroslav-baran-for-inside-policy/ Jamestown: https://jamestown.org/russia-and-belarus-preparing-for-escalation-with-ukraine-and-nato/ Fronts: https://fronts.co/article/europe-needs-to-defend-itself-against-russian-aggression/ Kyiv Post: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/77671 LeMonde: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/04/21/ukraine-belarus-tensions-rise-as-border-militarization-intensifies67526874.html ISW: https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26-2026/ Joni Askola, X: https://x.com/joniaskola/status/2064708381865042232 --- Full analysis is behind the paywall. Read the gated piece at https://fronts.co/videos/warfronts-c8xqybaxum0/.