WarFronts Weekly 1.2.2026: Friday Blitz.

02.01.2026

Chaos Across Iran:

The nation of Iran was paralyzed by an expanding series of mass protests this week, spreading across more than a dozen provinces and leaving at least seven people dead . While the long-term staying power of the protests is not yet clear, they already represent Iran’s most destabilizing internal revolts since the response to the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini.

This latest round of protest was prompted by the start of a new economic crisis , which comes as Iran’s regime is already struggling to survive under global sanctions and the threat of renewed war with Israel. This week, the value of Iran’s currency , the rial, fell precipitously, exacerbating longer-term, out-of-control inflation.

Protests against the government broke out for the first time on Sunday, when shopkeepers closed their doors and began to march in Iran’s major cities. On Monday, the governor of Iran’s Central Bank unexpectedly resigned. By Wednesday, December 31, the US dollar was trading at 1.38 million rials , and the Central Bank governor had been replaced by a former minister of economics who was dismissed for mismanagement of the rial just months ago.

Making matters worse, Iranians can anticipate even harder times ahead, as a state revaluation of gasoline will push prices further upward. Water shortages have only accelerated the crisis, and have contributed to intense anger toward the regime—exacerbated by the regime’s apparent use of water cannons to quell the protests. With no clear reason to even hope for relief, Iranian citizens took to the streets in massive numbers , with protests only growing across the course of the week.

By Thursday, protests were reported in all of Iran’s major cities , many of its smaller urban centers, and even its rural provinces, where the use of force against protesters is more common. Some reports indicate that Iranian security officials have been reluctant to act against the protesters, although clashes in several cities—especially the city of Azna —have been intense.

At this time, the true extent of the violence in Iran is unknown, with state media already seeming to underreport casualties , and only limited documentation of the unrest making its way to global audiences. Videos that do emerge, often depict buildings or objects set ablaze while gunfire is audible in the background. One of the dead was a 21-year-old volunteer serving with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, who an IRGC-tied news outlet claimed was killed by rioters.

The regime has attempted to organize a response , ordering single-day shutdowns in twenty-one of Iran’s thirty-one provinces on Wednesday. Those shutdowns, however, were ineffective in containing the violence. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Russian and Chinese weapons are flowing into Iran, via at least five cargo flights by Belarusian aircraft, although it’s not clear that the regime has the support among soldiers to quell these protests through violent means.

Around the World:

The United Arab Emirates announced the withdrawal of its forces from Yemen on Tuesday, after Saudi Arabia issued the UAE an ultimatum to depart and conducted an airstrike to destroy what Riyadh claimed was an Emirati weapons shipment in a Yemeni port city. While the Emirates’ agreement to withdraw is relevant, it does not suggest a broader Emirati disengagement from Yemen’s Southern Transitional Council (STC); like Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces, the UAE will likely continue to support the STC while denying involvement. On Friday, Yemen’s Saudi-backed government began a local counteroffensive in some areas, while the STC reported seven Saudi airstrikes.

A Wall Street Journal exclusive reports that US national security officials have concluded that Ukraine did not target Vladimir Putin’s Novgorod residence this week, and that instead, Putin levied those accusations to disrupt and sour the result of peace talks between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump. According to the report, Trump has been briefed on the new intelligence findings.

Chinese forces withdrew from the waters surrounding Taiwan on Wednesday, at the conclusion of massive surprise military drills, allowing a fuller accounting of the forces deployed. According to Taiwan, over ninety Chinese naval and coast guard vessels deployed to the strait, along with seventy-seven military aircraft, thirty-five of which crossed the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait.

Combat continued across lower Somalia this week, with Somali forces recapturing the town of Jabad Godane with the support of unspecified international air power. Unconfirmed reports emerged that al-Shabaab captured a coastal town roughly eighty kilometers north of Mogadishu, re-establishing a foothold in an area that Somalia had previously cleared.

Russian officials stated that a Ukrainian drone strike on New Year’s Day killed twenty-four people and wounded at least fifty, during celebrations in a Russian-occupied village in the Kherson region. The strike has yet to be verified, raising concerns that it may be another false claim similar to Putin’s recent allegations around the purported attack on his residence.

The United States announced that it struck five alleged narcotrafficking boats across two days this week, killing eight people and observing that several possible survivors abandoned the vessels after they were hit. The precise locations of the strikes were not disclosed, and the fate of any survivors is currently unknown.

A suspected Islamic State suicide bomber attempted an attack on a church in Aleppo, Syria, in the waning hours of New Year’s Eve, but was intercepted by security forces at a checkpoint. The attacker detonated an explosive belt, killing an officer and injuring two others; the failed attack came as mass Islamic State arrests continue in Turkey.

Also in Syria, the northern coastal city of Latakia was placed under curfews this week, just days after four people were killed in predominantly Alawite protests. Security forces were deployed into the city, raising fears of renewed crackdowns in the wake of massacres in 2025, as Alawite activists continued calls for a decentralized political system to govern Syria.

In Peru, an attack on small-scale artisanal gold miners left at least three people dead and seven missing, in the latest of a string of similar killings related to Peru’s organized-crime crisis. Thirteen miners were killed in the same area last May; Peru’s artisanal mining industry is known to be rife with corruption, crime, and exploitation.

Russia announced that its nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missile system has entered operational service in Belarus, with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko indicating that up to ten Oreshnik systems will be based there in total. The Oreshnik uses a multiple-warhead design, with a range of up to 5,000 kilometers, and is very difficult to intercept.

Finnish forces boarded and seized a vessel of Russia’s shadow fleet, the Fitburg , shortly after it damaged a series of undersea telecommunications cables running from Finland to Estonia. The cable-cutting is the latest in a series of suspected Russian-linked sabotage incidents, in which fiber-optic cables have been intentionally damaged or severed.

This week, Israel suspended over three dozen humanitarian organizations from operations in Gaza and the West Bank, citing the groups’ failure to meet new registration requirements. The impacted organizations include Doctors Without Borders, the International Rescue Committee, and other groups that deliver lifesaving aid.

Ugandan police arrested prominent human rights activist Sarah Bireete on Tuesday, in the latest of a long line of arrests of dissenters and opponents to long-time dictator Yoweri Museveni. The arrest comes less than three weeks away from Uganda’s national elections, scheduled for January 15, when Museveni is widely expected to be re-elected in a vote likely to be neither free nor fair.

Pakistan sentenced eight journalists and YouTubers in absentia to life sentences in prison, for terrorism-related offenses in support of imprisoned ex-PM Imran Khan. According to Pakistani prosecutors, the convicted had produced material that promoted “fear and unrest”; most or all of the convicted are outside the country.

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced an interest in remaining in power for another decade, tempering previous expectations that he would leave office in 2029. When Bukele first came into office, he was constitutionally limited to a single term in office, although his Congress has since fully abolished term limits and extended the length of presidential terms.

Bangladesh faces a renewed political crisis this year, as youth-led parties—particularly the National Citizen Party—face backlash after they formed partnerships with other political parties. The National Citizen Party recently allied itself with the Islamist, establishment Jamaat-e-Islami party, prompting backlash from many of the party’s own highest officials. The nation will soon hold its first national elections since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in 2024.

Early election results in Guinea show that the leader of the nation’s military regime, General Mamdi Doumbouya, will be declared president after seizing power in a 2021 coup. The election cycle saw the forced dissolution of over fifty political parties, with all major, credible opposition candidates barred from participation or exiled.

Israel will receive twenty-five new copies of its custom-made F-15IA from Boeing, with an option to procure twenty-five more, after the US Pentagon awarded Boeing a multibillion-dollar contract to build the jets. Notably, the contract will not be paid by Israel, but by the US Department of Defense.

Also in US DoD news, the United States will attempt to partner with private contractors to operate a fleet of amphibious aircraft (seaplanes) in the Indo-Pacific. The initiative represents a shift away from the cancelled Liberty Lifter program, although there are very few range- and payload-appropriate options available via private industry.

China recently allowed images to leak on social media, depicting a semi-submersible trimaran naval vessel that appears to be roughly sixty-five meters long. The vessel’s function is not currently clear, and it’s not currently known to be crewed, uncrewed, or optionally manned; regardless, the unconventional design is the latest indicator of the rapid pace and expansive scope of Chinese defense innovation.

Last week, Ukraine’s Defense Minister announced that its pilots are preparing to train on the Swedish Gripen, after a recent deal to procure up to 150 of the jets in the near future. While the deal came in tandem with a similarly massive order for French Rafales, in what was suspected to be an attempt to prompt the EU to unlock frozen Russian assets, the latest announcement indicates a continued willingness to invest in the jets despite the decision not to use those funds.

Also last week, a high-ranking Ukrainian military officer disclosed that roughly forty percent of all artillery used by Ukraine on the front lines now comes via the Bohdana , a high-performing, indigenously designed mobile howitzer that Ukraine now produces in up to forty copies per month . The Bohdana’s increased relevance reflects massive investments in Ukraine’s defense industry, expected to become a major driver of Ukraine’s eventual post-war economy.

Finally, Ukraine and Portugal agreed a recent partnership to co-produce sea drones, in a critical test case for NATO-member adoption of the technology. While Ukraine’s sea drones have been used to devastating effect across the Black Sea, many NATO nations have proved reticent to invest in the technology, at least for now.

Estonia will procure six copies of South Korea’s K239 Chunmoo Multiple Launch Rocket System, with deliveries starting in 2027. While the overall batch of Chunmoos is relatively small, it will substantially increase Estonia’s rocket-artillery force, which today relies on just six copies of the American HIMARS system.

Peace & Progress:

Major shipping companies have begun to openly signal faith in the security of the Red Sea, after a long-term pause in Houthi attacks since October. Last week, two ships owned by the major CMA CGM shipping line navigated the Suez Canal safely, while Maersk sent a ship through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait for the first time in almost two years.