WarFronts Weekly: 1.20.2026.

“We want children to return to school without fear, and for electricity, water, and bread to be restored. We're not asking for a miracle; we just want stability and a normal life.”

– Civilian Safia Keddo, speaking to AFP near the river Euphrates.

Damascus, SDF Reach, Then Upend Integration Deal:

Syria’s transitional government claimed a major internal victory on Monday, when Damascus and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces agreed a deal to bring Kurdish civilian and military authorities under the control of Syria’s central government. But although the deal is a real and notable achievement for the Sharaa government, both the circumstances behind the truce, and the news out of Syria since it was agreed, have made clear that instability in Syria will persist for the near future.

The deal came as a result of a multi-phase advance by the Syrian military, first in Kurdish-majority Aleppo neighborhoods last week, and then in battles across outlying towns and especially strategic dams. Other skirmishes had taken place at or around lucrative oil fields and SDF outposts.

The death toll from the fighting is unknown at this time, and is not likely to be accurately tallied by either side. By Saturday, however, it was clear that the pressure campaign against the SDF had worked as intended, with SDF troops pulling back from contested areas. Syrian forces, however, pressed their offensive further , according to SDF leaders.

On Sunday, the SDF agreed to a comprehensive deal that appeared to be Damascus’ ultimate objective. In that deal, the SDF agreed to withdraw from the Arab-majority provinces of Dier ez-Zor and Raqqa , thus giving up Syria’s largest oilfields, its domestic bread basket, and several important hydroelectric dams.

The deal also establishes that SDF forces will be merged into Syria’s larger defense apparatus as individuals , not as fighting units, and that control over border crossings, gas and oil fields, and Islamic State prison camps will pass to the Damascus government . In return, the SDF will be able to nominate key military and civilian leaders to government posts and appoint their own leaders in the SDF’s major stronghold, Hasakeh Province.

The deal was hailed as a historic achievement by the government in Damascus, and will be followed by a meeting between Syrian transitional leader Ahmed al-Sharaa and the leader of the SDF. It was also celebrated by Turkey , where security sources told Reuters that Turkish intelligence had played a critical role in ultimately brokering the agreement. The deal demands that the SDF return Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) fighters who Turkey considers to be an enduring threat.

By Monday, however, it was clear that not all was well in the Syrian northeast. On that day, the SDF and the Syrian military both reported new clashes , with the SDF alleging attacks by government forces on multiple fronts , and Syrian troops alleging that PKK operatives had killed three soldiers across two attacks. Also Monday, the SDF alleged that Turkish drones struck the city of Hasakeh , although Turkish sources denied the claim.

Making matters worse, the SDF reported intense fighting in the vicinity of a prison in Raqqa, where hundreds of Islamic State fighters have been detained for years. By evening, the Syrian Army was reporting full control of the city, but acknowledged that 120 Islamic State fighters had been released and fled the prison —allegedly as a result of an SDF decision to set them free. The SDF stated that it lost control of the facility, after fighting left nine of its soldiers dead and twenty wounded.

On Tuesday, the agreement between the two sides seemed to collapse completely , with fighting reported at another critical ISIS detention center , and Syria marching on the al-Hol displaced persons camp. Syrian forces are working to divide what remains of Kurdish-held territory into two distinct enclaves , with only one—representing the northeastern tip of Syria’s territory—even remotely likely to be able to organize a long-term defense. In Hasakeh, US Special Forces were forced to deploy to the al-Sina Prison, to help prevent a total loss of control over the facility.

Image Credit: "Ahmed al-Sharaa in Moscow, 2025" by Sergey Bobylev, TASS is licensed under CC BY 4.0 .

This Week on WarFronts:

This week, we published this episode on the nation of Nicaragua , where, after the United States’ brazen capture of Nicolas Maduro, Nicaragua’s repressive and dictatorial Ortega regime is under pressure to appease Washington or otherwise escape its notice.

By the time this episode was released, Nicaragua had already announced that it would free dozens of detainees from custody, including political prisoners, under pressure from the United States. Since then, however, Washington has demonstrated that it doesn’t intend to relieve the pressure on the Ortega family anytime soon. This weekend, Washington demanded the release of all political prisoners held in Nicaragua—a number believed to comprise many thousands of people , who Nicaraguan authorities have long been loath to even acknowledge.

Ugandan Opposition On the Run After Election:

It’s been a dramatic few days in Uganda , despite the fact that, on paper, 81-year-old dictator Yoweri Museveni appeared to claim his anticipated seventh term in office without much issue. After Museveni’s victory, Ugandan opposition leaders are working to signal continued opposition to Museveni’s rule, setting the stage for a protracted showdown over the nation’s future.

The first sign of post-election trouble came overnight into Friday, when at least seven people were killed in the town of Butambala, roughly 55 kilometers south of the capital city. There, police alleged that machete-wielding opposition members under the command of a local parliamentarian attacked a police station and vote-counting facility, with twenty-five people arrested in total. That local parliamentarian, by contrast, claimed that ten people were slaughtered by security forces in his garage as they waited for results to come in.

On the following night, the home of opposition candidate Bobi Wine was raided by the Ugandan military, who used helicopters and numerous ground troops to attempt to apprehend him. Wine, real name Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, was able to escape his home, and has since disappeared , although he is believed to still be in Uganda.

As of Monday, internet blackouts had been partially lifted , with remaining prohibitions on the use of social media. As of now, information streaming out of Uganda does not show that the nation was hit with mass unrest or violent state repression, similar to Tanzania’s reaction to post-election protests in 2025.

The nation is, however, expected to remain on-edge for some time. Although Museveni was declared the winner in Uganda’s election with 71.6% of the vote, his re-election is widely regarded as a sham , and election observers have found the vote to be neither free nor fair. Issuing a statement from his unknown hideout, Bobi Wine and his allies have alleged mass fraud, and limited opposition protests have already bubbled up on the streets.

As of now, all sides seem to agree that Uganda is a prime candidate for youth-led upheaval in the near future, with Museveni personally calling for religious leaders to reach out to young people and prevent their affiliation with violent groups or ideas. Conditions in Uganda are similar to those nations that have seen recent Gen-Z protest movements, with high youth unemployment and endemic corruption on display.

Image Credit: "President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, speaking at the London Summit on Family Planning (7550487892)" by DFID - UK Department for International Development is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 .

What We're Reading:

It’s not every day, that we get to share first-hand accounts from a person held in the custody of a Middle Eastern nation’s intelligence service, but thanks to this Atlantic article , we can do precisely that.

The article, by New Lines Institute research fellow and Princeton Ph.D. candidate Elizabeth Tsurkov, details her kidnapping and extended detention within Iraq’s state security apparatus. Although the article goes into detail on the violence used against Tsurkov, the article’s title should give an idea of its tone: “ I Was Kidnapped by Idiots ”.

Around the World:

South Sudan’s SPLA-IO opposition faction called for an advance on the capital city of Juba, after capturing a strategically critical town called Pajut amidst heavy fighting last week. The group’s control of the town is now disputed , after an apparent counterattack, but the SPLA-IO insists that it remains in control of the town despite youth-led riots. Pajut is over 300 kilometers from the capital, but is a staging ground for a likely offensive into the regional capital of Bor, thus enabling a march on Juba relatively soon.

Heavy clashes between Fano rebel forces and Ethiopian troops in the country’s Amhara region have purportedly left over a hundred regime soldiers dead, including 46 killed and 24 captured on January 11 , over 25 killed on January 12 , untold but “ numerous ” regime losses on January 13 , and over thirty killed on January 16 , while forty civilians and 65 Fano militiamen were killed in a drone strike on January 15 . These death tolls should be read with caution, as they are gathered primarily from pro-Fano local sources.

Congolese troops and pro-Kinshasa militias finally entered the South Kivu city of Uvira, weeks after M23 rebels first stated that they would vacate the town to comply with the ceasefire still technically governing the nation. Local sources reported heavy fighting on the outskirts of the city, while M23 fighters most likely retain control of the surrounding highlands, meaning that they can shell into, pressure, and recapture the city at will.

Also in the Congo, M23 military convoys appear to be converging on rebel positions at the front line in North Kivu province, where a new advance appears to be in preparation phases. Local sources indicate that M23 intends to attack the city of Butembo, North Kivu’s main commercial and economic hub outside of the regional capital, Goma.

Israel appears to be encouraging the United States to intervene directly in Iran, and bring about the collapse of the regime in Tehran. According to the Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel has told the US that it can absorb a barrage of up to 700 Iranian ballistic missiles, launched in retaliation after decisive US action.

A bandit attack at two churches in Nigeria’s Kaduna State saw over 160 people abducted, according to a local religious leader. The attack took place in the community of Kurmin Wali, in an area where armed groups—locally known as bandits, no matter their precise objective—are known to regularly round up and ransom civilians.

Elsewhere in Nigeria, the nation’s air force destroyed roughly ten canoes with over forty militants onboard, in a series of strikes around Lake Chad on Sunday. The strikes came in Borno State, where both Boko Haram and the Islamic State – West Africa Province maintain an armed insurgent presence; the targeted militants were allegedly planning an attack.

Ukraine can only meet 60% of total electricity need nationwide, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, after relentless Russian attacks have left the nation’s energy infrastructure in shambles. Russia’s strikes have left millions of Ukrainians vulnerable in the dead of winter, when temperatures regularly drop below -10 degrees Celsius.

A Pakistan clash in the Kharan district of Balochistan left at least twelve militants dead, after those militants attempted to take hostages at a police station. The unsuccessful attack was carried out by the Baloch Liberation Army, according to Pakistani security forces, who accused the militants of being backed by India.

A Colombia battle between two rival militant groups left at least twenty-seven members of a FARC faction dead, with their adversaries reportedly escaping the incident without casualties. Each group had splintered off from Colombia’s larger insurgency in April of 2024, but one had since chosen to engage in peace talks, while the other had not.

Chaos is spreading in Guatemala, where inmates seized control of three prisons and took dozens of guards hostage on Saturday. Although the prison riots were related to a dispute between a gang leader and the state, nine police officers were killed in Guatemala City on the following day as retaliation, after security forces recaptured one of the prisons.

An explosion at a Chinese-run restaurant in Kabul left at least seven people dead, including one Chinese national and six Afghans. Islamic State – Khorasan Province claimed credit, and stated that its main target was Chinese nationals. In the Afghan north, four gunmen were killed by border guards after crossing into Tajikistan, according to Tajik security forces; the men were believed to have been smugglers.

Chadian soldiers exchanged fire with Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces after RSF fighters crossed into Chad, with the clash leaving seven Chadian troops dead in the aftermath. The clash comes as the RSF’s dependence on cross-border smuggling via Chad is growing, now that powerful regional nations have aligned to cut off most other UAE supply routes to sustain the group.

Saudi Arabia accused the United Arab Emirates of running a secret prison at an airbase in southern Yemen, and vowed to take action against the UAE and the head of Yemen’s now-dissolved separatist STC. Meanwhile in the town of Kufra, Libya, an area where UAE-backed forces are increasingly active, Libyan authorities rescued over 200 migrants from an underground prison purportedly run by a human trafficker.

The US has completely withdrawn from Iraq’s Ain al-Asad Airbase, a long-time target for Iran-backed militant groups over the last several years. The withdrawal completes an agreement made in 2024, but is notable as heightened tensions in the Middle East have seen US assets move into the region. According to Iraq’s military, a handful of US soldiers will remain to address lasting, unspecified logistical issues.