WarFronts Weekly 11.21.2025: Friday Blitz.

21.11.2025

Washington and Moscow Draft New Ukraine Peace Plan:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his deputies were presented with a new draft version of a peace plan this week, after the plan was agreed upon by American and Russian representatives meeting without Ukrainian or European involvement . Similar to past Russian proposals, the peace plan includes a range of conditions that Ukraine is unlikely to accept, although Washington’s involvement suggests that Kyiv may be pressured intensely to agree to the terms.

According to White House officials, the 28-point peace plan was drafted by Trump’s preferred diplomatic envoy, Steve Witkoff , in partnership with a high-ranking adviser to Vladimir Putin, Kirill Dmitriev . Trump has endorsed the plan, and Russian sources have told the global press that they find the plan’s terms generally favorable .

The plan calls for Ukraine to make a number of difficult concessions , including ones that Ukraine has repeatedly rejected out-of-hand in prior negotiation attempts. Those include a surrender of the entire Donbas region , including cities like Kramatorsk and Sloviansk that Ukraine still controls, although Ukraine would not be mandated to formally recognize Russia’s sovereignty claim. Parts of Donbas abandoned by Ukraine would be recognized as a demilitarized zone .

Ukraine would also have to commit to downsizing its armed forces by half , accepting that it will not join NATO , and banning the deployment of foreign peacekeeping troops on its territory. Ukraine would be compelled to recognize Russian as an official state language and welcome the Russian Orthodox Church , and Russia would not surrender territory in the Ukrainian oblasts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia that it currently controls.

In exchange, Ukraine would be granted security assurances from the United States in case of future Russian aggression. Notably, the plan would also extend assurances to Europe —an odd inclusion, considering America’s existing NATO obligations. The peace deal apportions money for Ukrainian reconstruction , although it also cuts the United States in on fifty percent of all profits.

Russia, however, would not make any meaningful concessions , and America’s promise of security guarantees comes at a time of growing skepticism in Kyiv and across Europe, about America’s commitment to its security pacts. Commenting on the draft deal on Thursday, the Kremlin emphasized that any peace deal would have to address the “ root causes ” of the conflict, signaling that its negotiating principles have remained fundamentally consistent since the war began.

Washington has reportedly signaled to Ukraine that Zelenskyy’s administration is expected to accept the framework , and move forward with a peace process based on the key points as-written, rather than presenting a rebuttal or proposing alterations. Reuters reports that the US will cut intelligence-sharing and weapons supplies, until Ukraine accepts.

European nations strongly oppose the plan in private, while the Ukrainian leadership has not yet made a public comment. Senior US military officials are in Kyiv to discuss the plan, and Zelenskyy and Trump will speak soon .

The demands come at a moment of critical weakness for Ukraine, as Zelenskyy’s government faces its largest scandal since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion. On the front lines, Ukraine appears to be losing any remaining control over the city of Pokrovsk, while Russia claims that it has encircled a large Ukrainian force in a neighboring district, and another 5,000 troops in Kharkiv.

Despite the pressure on Ukraine, the deal is likely impossible for Kyiv or its European allies to accept . At a moment when US-led sanctions on Russia appear to be making progress , this peace plan would hand Moscow an unequivocal victory.

Around the World:

Russia launched one of its largest air attacks of the Ukraine invasion thus far, when overnight into Wednesday, it used 48 missiles to attack Ukrainian energy and transport infrastructure along with nearly 500 kamikaze drones. At least twenty-six people were killed in Ukraine during the attack, many in the western city of Ternopil; twenty-two were still missing, as of Thursday evening.

Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, killing at least thirteen people in what it stated was a strike against a militant training compound in a Palestinian refugee camp. Israel struck Lebanon again on the following day, hitting alleged weapons depots. On Thursday, Israeli strikes primarily targeting Khan Younis , in Gaza, left thirty-three people dead.

In the latest attack in Nigeria’s western Kwara State, two worshippers were killed and a pastor and several others were kidnapped during services at a Christian church. The attack came amidst intense US scrutiny of Nigeria, for the frequent violence that Christians experience as part of Nigeria’s larger multidimensional security crisis.

An ambush in western Niger left at least ten Nigerien soldiers dead at the hands of JNIM fighters, in a region near the nation’s shared border with Mali and Burkina Faso. One government source, speaking to Reuters, placed the total number of dead at twenty soldiers; the attack comes as JNIM shifts tactics, in its ongoing fuel blockade against Mali.

During Mali’s counterinsurgent efforts against JNIM, the nation’s military and allied pro-government militias reportedly killed at least thirty-one civilians in October, during a pair of operations in villages in the central region of Segou. According to witnesses interviewed by Human Rights Watch, the Malian army executed villagers during the attacks.

Tensions are high in the West Bank , after two Palestinian attackers killed an elderly Israeli man and wounded three other people in a car-ramming and stabbing attack. In the weeks leading to the ramming, Israeli settlers have been repeatedly accused of violence against Palestinians, torching homes and villages in a village near Bethlehem this Monday.

The United Kingdom is engaged in a standoff with a Russian spy ship, the Yantar , as it operates off the Scottish coast. According to British Defense Minister (and friend of WarFronts) John Healey, the Yantar has directed lasers at British aircraft sent to surveil it; Britain is reportedly ready to take military action against the vessel if necessary.

Romania scrambled Eurofighters on Wednesday in response to a drone breach of the nation’s airspace, after a Russian drone signal was picked up, eight kilometers into Romanian airspace. No drone impacts were reported within Ukrainian territory, and the drone was not shot down, suggesting that it may have turned back or crash-landed in a more remote area.

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has requested a boost to NATO air defenses on Slovakia’s eastern flank, in response to growing threats of aggression from Russia. Notably, Fico and Slovakia have also pursued an acquisition of F-16s, but have resisted calls for NATO members to raise their defense spending by NATO’s collectively agreed deadlines.

In India, arrests continue after last week’s car blast in Delhi. On Thursday, India’s anti-terrorism National Investigation Agency announced the arrests of four people from the disputed Kashmir region, including three doctors, who “ all played a key role in the terror attack ”. India has arrested numerous terror suspects in the last several weeks, exposing multiple, allegedly interconnected terror plots.

Mexican authorities arrested the alleged mastermind behind the killing of Mayor Carlos Manzo, a man with links to the Jalisco New Generation Cartel that wields power in Michoacan State, where Manzo was killed. The aftermath of Manzo’s killing has seen over ten thousand troops deployed to the state, as the Mexican public takes to the streets as part of a growing protest movement against the nation’s leaders.

US President Donald Trump claimed that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman “ knew nothing ” about the 2018 killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents, during a state visit to Washington. The major rhetorical shift from the US comes at a difficult time for global journalists, as rates of violence and killings of reporters rise around the world.

Also during the Washington visit, Trump approved the sale and future delivery of US F-35s to Saudi Arabia. Although few details were reported by the White House at the time, Saudi Arabia is known to be seeking 48 copies of the jet, making it the second nation in the Middle East to gain access to the jet—or, for that matter, any stealth fighter aircraft.

In other acquisitions news, Colombia has signed a contract with the Swedish Saab aerospace firm to procure seventeen copies of its Gripen E/F fighter jets within the next five years. The deal adds to a growing list of unfilled orders for the Gripen, but Colombia may benefit from construction set to begin in neighboring Brazil.

The European Union unveiled a package of proposed policy changes this week, to facilitate the rapid deployment of troops and heavy armor across Europe in the event of a conflict. The new proposals would invest into 500 locations identified as chokepoints that could not currently handle the intense traffic of a forward deployment, and calls for European armed forces to be granted emergency priority access to transit routes.

The saga of Philippine ex-mayor Guo Hua Ping , alias Alice Guo, came to a close this week after Guo was sentenced to life imprisonment on several charges of human trafficking. Guo served as mayor of the town of Bamban, north of Manila, while claiming to be a Filipino citizen, before being identified as a Chinese national with extensive links to organized crime.

Peace & Progress:

During his trip to Washington, Mohammed bin Salman urged Donald Trump to take action to end the ongoing conflict in Sudan, prompting Trump to announce publicly on Wednesday that the US will begin efforts to that effect. The US has previously attempted to offer truce agreements to pause the conflict, but those overtures have been rejected, and did not appear to seriously address the root causes of the conflict.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo and the rebel group M23 signed a peace framework last weekend, bringing both sides a step closer to ending the nation’s civil conflict. Although the DRC and M23 are still far apart on most of the agreement’s action items, a signing under any circumstance is a positive sign of at least some forward momentum toward an end to the war.

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