WarFronts Weekly 12.12.2025: Friday Blitz.

12.12.2025.

M23 Seizes Critical City of Uvira:

The Congolese rebel group M23 notched its largest victory in several months this week, when its forces rolled into the city of Uvira with the support of the Rwandan Army. The conquest comes as Washington and its allies, as well as both the Congolese and the Rwandan governments, attempt to maintain outside impressions that the Congo conflict is managed by multiple peace and development deals.

The capture of Uvira is the product of a months-long mobilization effort, as M23 and Rwandan forces aggregated troops, munitions, and supplies for a concerted attack down the RN5 highway, and the surrounding Ruzizi Plain. Since the summer, M23 has been fighting peripheral battles in the RN5’s vicinity and elsewhere, working to isolate Congolese forces so that they could be overwhelmed more easily.

The target, the city of Uvira, was home to a pre-war population of roughly three-quarters of a million people . It is an important seat of local government, and is a critical access point to the nation of Burundi . Whoever controls Uvira, can alternately protect or threaten Burundi while controlling the flow of goods across the border.

The M23 offensive was characterized by early, fierce fighting by Congolese troops, and then a sudden breakthrough , after which time Congolese forces were unable to meaningfully reconstitute.

To gain victory, M23 had to overcome a highly concentrated Congolese troop presence along the highway route, which M23 dealt with through a combination of artillery shelling and a series of quick victories in nearby, strategically important highlands . After their breakthrough, M23 required only four days to complete its advance and reach the city.

Rwanda’s military appears to have contributed substantially to the M23 advance, particularly by supplying artillery and kamikaze drones that gave M23 the punching power it needed. In providing that support, Rwanda flagrantly violated its Washington-mediated agreements with the Congo. That violation, like Rwanda’s prior actions, does not appear likely to prompt any meaningful repercussions.

While the capture of Uvira didn’t draw global attention like M23’s capture of the cities of Goma and Bukavu, it will meaningfully alter the complexion of the ongoing conflict . With Uvira captured, Burundi has been cut off from the Congo and will have to fend for itself. The Congolese military has lost its last major position in South Kivu Province, and will no longer be able to sustain support operations on Burundian territory.

While M23 is unlikely to be able to march on Kinshasa (over 1,400 kilometers away) anytime soon, the conquest of Uvira solidifies the rebels’ position as the dominant force in the eastern Congo . In even a best-case scenario, it will take multiple years for the Congo to be able to vie for control of this area again—notwithstanding Rwanda’s likely goal to fortify the territory against later counteroffensives.

Around the World:

Ukrainian leaders indicated an escalation in Russian attacks against the city of Pokrovsk this week, with the nation’s military announcing on Wednesday that Russia had begun an unusually large mechanized attack across the city. Ukrainian leaders assert that their defense of the city is still holding , although Russia is believed to be in control of most of Pokrovsk at this time.

Also on Europe’s eastern front, Ukraine launched a major drone attack against Russia’s Moscow region overnight on Wednesday, in a likely effort to probe the area’s air defenses in advance of more targeted strikes. Also over the last several days, Ukrainian naval drones struck another tanker tied to Russia’s shadow fleet as it sailed through the Black Sea, while aerial drones struck a Russian oil platform in the Caspian Sea.

In the opposing direction, Ukraine reported that Russia had struck gas transport pipelines in Odessa, where US liquefied natural gas is transported from Greece. Earlier this week, Russian military leader Valery Gerasimov indicated that Russia had surrounded Ukrainian troops in the town of Myrnohrad ; on Thursday, Russia claimed that it had captured the town of Siversk , pre-war population over 10,000, although Ukraine disputed the announcement.

On Wednesday, the United States announced that it had seized a Guyana-flagged oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast, as it transported a load of Venezuelan crude through the region. The US is reportedly planning to seize more tankers in the near future, with a large number of US-sanctioned vessels either approaching Venezuela, or in Venezuelan ports, at this time.

Amidst the US pressure campaign, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro appears to be exploring the idea of a political exile to Russia with increasing seriousness. This week, Russia and Belarus both reached out to Venezuela, in conversations with high-ranking Venezuelan officials that appear focused on coordinating Maduro’s exit.

Shortly after Sudan’s rebel Rapid Support Forces paramilitary captured the nation’s Heglig oil field, the zone came under attack in a drone strike by the Sudanese Armed Forces. The SAF’s strike reportedly killed dozens of people, including seven tribal leaders and multiple South Sudanese soldiers present to protect a major refinery that handles South Sudan’s oil exports.

An airstrike in Myanmar killed over thirty people at a hospital in Rakhine State, according to local aid workers and representatives from the rebel Araken Army. The airstrike was carried out on the behalf of Myanmar’s military regime, and is the latest of many instances in which Myanmar’s jets have bombed clear civilian targets.

Haiti’s capital city was rocked by intra-gang violence this week, when member gangs within the nation’s organized-criminal coalition battled for dominance in the streets. Among the dead were ten children, as well as a high-ranking gang leader who was beheaded in the violence. A total of nineteen gang members are believed to have been killed thus far.

The Nigerian Army fired on protests in the nation’s northeastern Adamawa State this week, killing nine women who had obstructed a major road, and injuring ten others. The military blamed the incident on a local militia, although international rights groups and eyewitnesses confirmed that the nation’s soldiers were responsible.

Days after their takeover of large portions of southern Yemen, the separatist Southern Transitional Council announced its intent to capture Yemen’s Houthi-controlled capital city, Sana’a. Although a costly war against the Houthis isn’t actually likely, and Yemen’s separatists are focused on cementing control of the territory that formerly made up the nation of South Yemen, the temptation of a new anti-Houthi force may entice some nations to consider supporting the separatists’ sovereignty claim.

An ambush in Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan Province left three members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps dead, after a patrol was attacked by unidentified gunmen. The area is home to both separatist Baloch insurgents and organized criminal groups; five policemen died elsewhere in the province in a similar August attack.

Gen-Z-led protesters toppled the Bulgarian government on Thursday, when the nation’s Prime Minister and his cabinet resigned after weeks of anti-corruption marches. The decision comes just weeks before Bulgaria joins the Eurozone, and represents mass discontent with the Bulgarian government’s recent policy choices and endemic graft.

Elections in Honduras have become increasingly contentious over the last several days, as a close, currently unresolved vote has left all sides claiming electoral fraud. The nation’s military has vowed to ensure a stable transfer of power once a winner is declared, although the candidate from the nation’s current ruling party has resolved to condemn the results as illegitimate regardless of the final outcome.

In the aftermath of this week’s failed coup in the West African nation of Benin, the nation’s government now alleges that coup leader Pascal Tigri and several accomplices have fled into neighboring Togo. Tigri’s return may become a point of serious contention between the two nations, as Benin insists that any failure by Togo to extradite Tigri would signal Togo’s complicity in the coup attempt.

The Ivory Coast has requested the deployment of American surveillance aircraft in the country’s north, to carry out cross-border monitoring of the Sahel’s transnational JNIM insurgency. According to Ivorian officials, the US has agreed in principle to the arrangement already, although a deployment date is not yet established.

Bolivia announced the arrest of ex-president Luis Arce this week, barely a month after Arce left office at the end of his term. Arce is under investigation for acts of embezzlement, committed during his time as the Minister of Finance between 2006 and 2017, with damages equivalent to roughly 52 million US dollars.

Vietnam further tightened its restrictions on media and reporting this week, passing laws that increase legal penalties for reporting broadly defined state secrets, and make it more difficult for journalists to keep sources anonymous. Vietnam already ranks 173 rd of 180 world nations for its press freedoms, per Reporters Without Borders.

The United States reportedly pressured the International Criminal Court to amend its founding document, in order to guarantee that the ICC will not investigate or attempt to prosecute Donald Trump or his top officials, according to Reuters conversations with a Trump official. The US is threatening to sanction the court if the demand is not met.

Poland is holding active discussions with Ukraine on a proposal to supply all of its remaining MiG-29 fighters to Kyiv, in exchange for missile and drone technology. Poland’s remaining 14 copies of the MiG-29 are its most advanced, and are an aircraft that Ukrainian forces are already trained to use. Also this week, Poland announced that the United States will donate 250 copies of its Stryker Armored Personnel Carrier, although Poland will have to modernize and renovate the vehicles before they are battle-ready.

Turkey will build a combat drone assembly facility in Pakistan in the coming years, according to Bloomberg , in an effort to increase production capacity for Turkish drones and thus enable a larger Turkish presence in the global export market. The deal will advance ongoing defense-industrial collaboration between Ankara and Islamabad.

Bangladesh signed a letter of intent to procure an unspecified number of Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft, in a long-awaited move that the country has considered actively for over a decade. When it arrives, the Typhoon will augment Bangladesh’s aerial capabilities in a region dominated by India’s Rafales and Pakistan’s J-10Cs.

Finland announced its acquisition of hundreds of drone detectors and jammers, in its latest effort to shore up NATO’s longest national border with Russia. Finland’s jammers of choice are the SkyWiper Omni Max, which jam in a protective radius of several hundred meters. The nation also acquired specialized rifle sights by Israel’s Smartshooter.

Turkey has formally entered talks to rejoin the US-led F-35 program, according to statements made by the US Ambassador to Turkey on Wednesday. To regain access to the jet, Turkey will have to give up its Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems, an idea that Turkish officials have rejected in talks with prior US leadership.

Peace & Progress:

The leader of Colombia’s National Liberation Group (ELN) expressed a willingness to return to the negotiating table with Colombia’s government, in statements made to Reuters this week. According to the ELN, Colombia would have to honor commitments made before peace talks were suspended in January due to inter-faction clashes among the nation’s rebels.

The Nigerian government secured the release of 100 kidnapped schoolchildren, weeks after they were taken captive from a Catholic boarding school in Niger State. The children join an additional fifty who had been able to escape; dozens of students and twelve school staff remain missing, and their whereabouts are unknown.