Briefing Room 06.12.25

Welcome back to The Briefing Room, our weekly subscriber-only show focused on stories that are not merely flying under the radar, but are actively tunneling through the cold, dark earth beneath us, like Morlocks made of news.

In this week's edition, we're checking in on China, where a defense contractor recently claimed to have built a missile that is both hypersonic and also really, really cheap. After that, we're dipping our toes into Syria, where a plot may be underway again to assassinate the nation's new leadership.

But first, we're gliding like a 747. Those can glide? I mean, I guess so.

Over to North Korea to ask a pertinent question. What the hell is the Hermit Kingdom up to? And is it finally time to start taking the regime in Pyongyang seriously?

As always, thank you so much for subscribing. Not only does your subscription allow us to make exclusive content like this, they also help us cover our less clickable but important topics on the main channels. And now, the DPRK.

What is North Korea up to? This week, we begin in North Korea, where two stories have captured the attention of regional observers.

First, according to NK Pro, an independent analysis and intelligence platform focused on Pyongyang, over the past five months, the Hermit Kingdom has accelerated a project to build new defenses inside the Demilitarized Zone, or DMZ.

I know I'm British, and I should say DMZ, but it just doesn't sound right. Satellite images reviewed by NK Pro reveal that North Korea is clearing trees and building new walls, fences, and tank traps, usually close to the military demarcation line, MDL, and in some cases right alongside it.

NK Pro estimates that Pyongyang has reinforced about 74% of its border since the project began in 2024.

So, why are they doing this? Well, last year, North Korea used the pretext of building defense lines across the MDL to try and claim South Korean territory. However, NK Pro's analysts don't believe that's what's happening now.

In their view, the project is most likely linked to Kim Jong-un's latest policy that reunification between the Koreas is impossible. As part of this, he closed three organizations dealing with reunification and said that the constitution should be changed to designate Seoul as North Korea's primary enemy.

While that was concerning to Seoul, with the then-president promising significant retaliation should North Korea provoke it wasn't a complete surprise.

After all, the relationship between the two nations had significantly weakened after North Korea fully suspended a five-year military deal with the South aimed at lowering military tensions.

Pyongyang promised to withdraw all measures, and we'll quote them here, taken to prevent military conflict in all spheres including ground, sea, and air, and said it would deploy more forces to the border region.

Which explains why South Korea was alarmed when North Korean soldiers crossed the DMZ numerous times during the construction of the new fortifications, leading Seoul to propose military talks on clarifying MDL lines.

However, at the time of recording, Pyongyang is yet to respond. Now, while this would be enough to worry any South Korean defense expert, there's more.

According to Lee Xiangkyu, director of... the Nuclear Security Research Office at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, or KIDA, North Korea currently possesses 150 nuclear warheads and could have up to 400 by 2040.

Now, let's start with that first figure, 150. That is a significantly higher number of warheads than what most analysts believe North Korea has. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or SIPRI, for instance, assessed that North Korea possessed approximately 50 nuclear weapons as of January this year.

That's roughly a third of Li's estimate. As the OPFOR Journal online publication, tracking how America's enemies project power globally, noted in their weekly update, it is not immediately clear how Li arrived at that number.

However, if his assessment proves accurate, it would represent a significant intelligence failure on the part of Western and South Korean agencies.

On Pyongyang's side, though, it would represent its greatest ever victory, simultaneously managing to convince the world to take it seriously as a nuclear-armed nation, while successfully hiding just how far its nuclear program has come. And that takes us to the second number, 400 nuclear warheads by 2040.

If this number is accurate, and other countries don't increase their nuclear stockpiles by then, it would mean that North Korea would have the fourth largest nuclear arsenal in the world, behind only the US, Russia, and China.

And while, again, we don't know how Li got these numbers, the idea that Pyongyang will dramatically expand its nuclear capabilities is supported by the available evidence that we do have.

According to satellite images reviewed by 38 North, an online platform for policy and technical analysis on North Korea, Pyongyang has been modernizing and expanding the Yongbyong Nuclear Scientific Research Center.

Yongbyong plays a critical role in the production of nuclear material for North Korea's weapons program as the sole producer of plutonium and a significant source of enriched uranium.

Apart from expanding Yongbyong, North Korea has reportedly been constructing an additional uranium enrichment facility. Images reviewed by 38 North reveal that since September, a series of six possible heat exchanges has been installed along the southeast side of the main building.

Heat exchanges are an important part of nuclear weapons development as they cool centrifuges and maintain controlled temperatures inside the building.

The images also revealed that more equipment appeared to be outside the building. In his analysis, Li pointed out that North Korea would need to develop a small reactor with a 20% enrichment level to complete the development of its nuclear-powered submarine. Pyongyang first announced that a nuclear-powered submarine was under construction in March this year.

This new enrichment facility could be part of those efforts. Li does also point out that if North Korea were to do it independently, it would take them at least a decade to develop such technology. However, with Russia's help, which has significantly deepened its military cooperation with Pyongyang in recent months, the timeline decreases significantly.

Now, for South Korea, this is a worst-case scenario. If Pyongyang gets nuclear-powered submarines capable of launching ballistic missiles, it fundamentally transforms the security equation not just South Korea, but also for Washington.

As Victor Cha, the president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies put it, and that is a mouthful, we'll quote him here, North Korea's nuclear-powered submarine will complicate US anti-submarine warfare missions, especially in dual contingencies on the Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait.

Put it simply, North Korea's expanding nuclear capabilities is a program that the world will have to address sooner rather than later before the Hermit Kingdom becomes too powerful to contain.

Cheaper hypersonic missiles for China For our next story, we turn our attention to China, where, in a world first, the Beijing-based private aerospace company Ling Kong Tiangxing Technology recently announced the mass production of a low-cost, high-performance hypersonic missile known as the YKJ-1000.

According to the company, the missile has a range of 500 to 1,300 kilometers, reaches speeds of Mach 5 to 7, and maintains powered flight for six minutes.

Additionally, it does not require any specialized launch vehicles and can be deployed from mobile platforms, including at sea. In a video designed to demonstrate the missile's capabilities, it was transported by truck to a desert launch site, where it automatically deployed stabilizer supports.

The video showed it successfully striking a ground target after a steep dive.

Animated footage showed the missile identifying targets mid-flight and autonomously evading threats, suggesting it could bypass defensive screens, such as naval carrier strike groups or air defense systems.

And in case China's neighbors still didn't get the message, further animation depicted eight missiles flying in formation towards Japan, with multiple strike locations marked on a map, highlighting the weapon's operational range and coordinated strike capability.

A company representative told the press, and we'll quote them here, it is designed for rapid precision strikes against high-value targets deep in enemy territory, while also being capable of high-speed reconnaissance using high-resolution sensors and real-time data transmission technology." End quote.

Now, while the missile's capabilities, if confirmed, are obviously impressive, the biggest story is really its price and the implications for the global balance of power. Nicknamed the cement-coated missile due to its use of materials, including foamed concrete in its coating, the missile reportedly costs 700,000 won, about $99,000 to build.

Now, this isn't just cheaper than Western missiles, it is so much cheaper that it is tempting to believe Beijing is applying the Temu model to missiles.

The SM-6, for example, described as the US military's most immediate option for tackling growing threats posed by advanced maneuvering hypersonic weapons, reportedly costs around $4 to $4.9 million per missile.

This would mean that even if we took the lower end of that estimate, $4 million, China can produce 40 missiles for every one interceptor. 40 to 1 odds are not the kind of odds military planners anywhere want to contemplate. Brian Clark, the director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, wrote this about a similar situation, quoting him here.

All right. your thoughts are coming here. Your thoughts are coming. During the Red Sea attacks, the US Navy burned through $2 million interceptors to shoot down drones that cost $2,000.

That was a tactical asymmetry. Scale it up, and it becomes a strategic industrial imbalance. And not just in a conflict with China, but in a conflict with any nation, Chinese military commentator Wei Dongshu told state broadcaster CCTV that the missile's dirt cheap price could see it become extremely popular among smaller nations around the world.

Quoting him here, If this missile were introduced on the international defense market, it would be formidably competitive. Many nations have yet to develop their own hypersonic missiles, and this one, with its long-range, high destructive power, and strong penetration capability, would likely become a hot commodity due to its dirt cheap price. End quote.

One nation that could be interested in these missiles, if they were available for purchase today, is Venezuela, which is currently locked in a feud with the Trump administration over President Nicolas Maduro's future. The Washington Post reports that, as the feud escalates, Venezuela has turned to China, Russia, and Iran seeking military aid.

Documents reviewed by the Post indicate that Maduro sent a letter to President Xi Jinping seeking expanded military cooperation between their two countries to counter the escalating violence between the U.S. and Venezuela.

In the letter, Maduro asked the Chinese government to expedite Chinese companies' production of radar detection systems, presumably so Venezuela could enhance its capabilities. According to the Post, it isn't clear how Beijing responded, or whether China would be willing to supply Caracas with the requested material.

Although China rejected President Trump's declaration that Venezuelan airspace was completely closed, China has been historically hesitant to make any moves that would outright anger Washington.

Now, obviously, Maduro can't rely on these missiles to protect him from Washington. The company just announced that they are starting manufacturing, and it would be a long time before enough are made to challenge Washington in any meaningful way. However, we chose Venezuela to illustrate the risk that these missiles pose to the global order.

Because of how cheap they are claimed to be, and the fact that they can be mass-produced, nations that were previously incapable of threatening major powers could now find themselves with options that fundamentally alter regional security calculations.

If the claims presented in the marketing videos are true, and we do have to insist that they are simply marketing videos right now, it means that a country doesn't necessarily need a cutting-edge aerospace industry or decades of military experience anymore.

Just the cash to import shipping containers full of weapons that can flood the airspace of enemy nations faster and with more numbers than most interceptors can counter.

There is the possibility that fears of this missile are overblown, as on the 29th of November, about four days after the initial announcement, Ling Kong Tiangxing Technology walked back claims about the cost of the YKJ-1000 missiles in response to questions by the state-owned China Daily News outlet.

A publicity officer at the firm told the outlet that claims that the manufacturing price was only $99,000 were not true.

However, she confirmed that the company has developed practical methods to use standard industrial components that could be mass-produced at low cost to replace traditional parts tailor-made for the space industry, which are usually much more expensive.

Still, whether the fears are overblown or not, the West has to wake up to the reality that cheap, mass-produced missiles are either already here, or they're pretty damn close. To quote Brian Clark, "...our enemies are building for war. We're still building for requirements.

That has to change, because the next war won't be won by the best missile, it'll be won by the system that can build the right missile in the right place at the right time. Again, and again, and again." End quote. An Assassination Plot in Syria For our final story, we turn our attention to Syria.

According to the Israeli outlet Channel 14, Israeli security officials believe that Syria's president, Ahmad al-Shara, also known by his nom-de-gur, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, could soon be assassinated by opposition elements. They warn that the region should brace for the kind of extremist power grabs once carried out by groups like ISIS.

Now, the idea that al-Shara is a target for assassination is definitely not new.

Reuters reported on the 10th of November that Damascus had foiled two separate Islamic State plots to assassinate President al-Shara. According to two senior officials who spoke to the outlet, the plots on Shara's life were foiled over the last few months and underlined the direct threat that he faces.

The source said that in one case, the IS plot was centered around a pre-announced official engagement involving Shara, but declined to provide further details due to the sensitivity of the matter.

While the Syrian government didn't comment on specific ports, citing security reasons, it affirmed that the Islamic State continues to pose a threat not just to Syria, but to the entire region.

The US even weighed in on the assassination with Thomas Baraka, the US special envoy for Syria and ambassador to Turkey, confirming multiple attempts on al-Shara's life and warning of very serious threats.

According to Taubiri at the Alma Research and Education Center, the threat to al-Shara doesn't come from just ISIS and opposition forces, but also from extremist forces within his own faction because of negotiations with Israel.

Writing for the Alma, he said, and we'll quote him here, security negotiations with Israel are seen as a red flag by extremists and increase the risk of assassination or an internal coup. So again, the idea of al-Shara being assassinated, not a particularly new idea. But what makes this story noteworthy is the messenger.

It is no secret that Israel and Syria's new leadership have a rocky relationship. Israel has struck Syria multiple times with the intention of preventing the new authorities from building military capabilities that could threaten Israeli security. In July, Israel struck the Syrian defense ministry in Damascus and government forces in southern Syria.

Additionally, Israel's National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gavir, openly called for the assassination of al-Shara, saying, and we'll quote him here, we need to do one more thing, eliminate al-Julani, get rid of him, he's a jihadist, why are we letting him live? End quote.

Given all that context, There is a belief that there could be more to the story, that it could be a geopolitical ploy to ratchet up the pressure on al-Sharah and Syria.

So, is that likely? And what would happen in Syria if al-Sharah were to be assassinated? Well, let's start with our first question.

It's likely that Israel's announcement is nothing more than a geopolitical ploy. And the honest answer is that we don't know. Israel usually plays its cards very close to its chest in matters of geopolitics, and this could either be them sending a veiled warning to al-Sharah or genuinely sounding the alarm about a threat they believe is imminent.

Given Israel's sophisticated intelligence apparatus and its track record of predicting regional developments, as well as its demonstrated history of attempted attacks against al-Sharah's life, dismissing the warning entirely would be foolish. But equally, ignoring the strategic context would be naive. The truth likely lies somewhere in between.

Unless someone publishes a tell-all book in the near future or a journalist executes a pull-its a prize-winning investigation, we likely won't ever know. So let's go on to our second question. What would happen if al-Sharah is assassinated?

Well, in our view, that depends on who does it. If it's carried out by extremist elements from within al-Sharah's faction, there might be a chance of someone close to al-Sharah seizing power long enough to stabilize the country.

If it's carried out by factions linked to former President Bashar al-Assad or by the Islamic State, then we'll use a technical term here.

All hell will break loose. Talbiri put it this way, quoting him here, As one of our writers noted in a piece published on this very website, While al-Sharah's Syria is far from being called a success, particularly for minority communities, he currently represents the best hope that the country has to get back on its feet.

Even Donald Trump recognized that, lifting sanctions on the country and promising that Washington would do everything it could to make Syria succeed.

If al-Sharah is assassinated, Syria risks slipping back into a cycle of violence and repression that last time saw hundreds of thousands die and millions flee their homes. The world cannot allow for that to happen.