Briefing Room 17.10 - Europe's Defense Plans are in Trouble (Again)

Welcome back to The Briefing Room, our weekly subscriber-only-thank-you-so-much show that looks at regular warfronts coverage and asks, what if we did that? Only even more obscure and more nerdy. I'm Simon Whistler, and this week we're returning to one of our perennial topics, ways Europe still refuses to get its shit together.

Beyond that, we're taking in the political crisis in Peru before traveling to Kenya, where our reporter got caught up in events when police opened fire on a crowd of mourners in the capital, killing four. As always, thank you for subscribing and supporting Fronts.

Not only does your membership help fund exclusive content just like this, but it also allows us to cover important but less lucrative topics on the main channel.

So thank you again. It means a lot. And let's get into how Europe keeps fucking up its own shit.

Big surprise here. Europe is fighting with itself again. This time, however, the stakes could not be higher.

A hundred billion euros in value and the prospect of a European sixth-generation fighter jet both on the line here.

The project in question is known as the FCAS, the Future Combat Air System, which brings together France, Germany, and to a somewhat lesser extent, Spain, to design the aircraft that's expected to replace both the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Rafale jet by France's Dessau. The FCAS project hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for a while now.

Similar to the internal disputes that led France to drop out of the early stages of what eventually became the Eurofighter program, questions around design and work sharing have been a point of contention for many months.

France, with its Dessau Corporation leading the way, has been pushing to take on a greater and greater role within the FCAS program, while Germany working on the project through Airbus would rather not be pushed out of its own project. Up until now, it's appeared that the two sides would grit their teeth and keep working together.

After all, giving up on FCAS would mean abandoning associated efforts to design combat drones, next-generation weapon systems, and AI-infused battlefield management networks, among other projects. But according to reports from last month, the simmering discontent on both sides of the FCAS arrangement has started to boil over into outright resentment.

In mid-September, German officials reportedly raised the FCAS issue with executives at Airbus and expressed that Berlin is now so frustrated with the program that it's actively considering the proposition to ditch Paris entirely.

Germany is reportedly interested in offering France's share of the program to the UK or Sweden, both nations with robust aerospace defense industries, or potentially even pursuing the project alone, with only the limited assistance of the FCAS group's third partner, Spain.

German Air Force officials expressed basically the same thing to the nation's legislatures, warning that if problems with FCAS were already this severe, then they would almost certainly grow worse once designs were finalized and production began.

While Germany could pull in new coalition partner neither britain nor sweden appear to have much available capacity britain's already fully engaged with europe's other sixth gen project the global combat air program which is tackling in a three-way split alongside italy and japan the uk's leading aerospace corporation bae systems could conceivably work on

Both projects but that would raise issues from a conflict of interest to a strain on london's finances to a potential shortage of design and engineering personnel qualified to handle sixth gen projects sweden meanwhile has long been assumed to be working on advanced aerospace tech behind the scenes and is continually working to upgrade its indigenous fighter

Jet the grippen but on this past wednesday october the 15th sweden contracted its own aerospace corporation saab to begin studies toward procuring sweden's own next generation combat aircraft and the associated systems that could be a bid to join germany on the fcas but it could just as easily mean that sweden's ambitions are already being channeled in

Another direction nor would germany have an easy time if it chose to attempt the fcas with only the assistance of spain germany has never built an advanced fighter aircraft by itself and spain has only ever been involved with the eurofighter program suggesting that the necessary expertise could be sorely lacking germany and spain could join the gcap

Initiative but the group's foundational trio and its design concepts are already set in stone as such any late additions to the team would basically have to accept the gcap coalition's plans and focus exclusively on the technology that three core nations are willing to delegate away from their own defense industrial contractors gcap is pushing hard to put

Operational aircraft in the sky by or before 2035 and if germany and spain come in and try to bureaucratize the process they'll be regarded as dead weight france of course has its own grievances with the project and although joseau has denied trying to claim most of the work on the fcas the company has admitted intense frustration with the bureaucracy and

The constant group approvals that are required to speed the project along within the last month or so france escalated its own rhetoric on the issue threatening to leave germany behind and just build the fcas itself if germany and airbus couldn't align themselves with france's vision unlike germany france does have experience designing highly advanced combat

Aircraft specifically the rafale but also unlike germany france proceeded to enter an acute political crisis shortly after threatening to break up the program not only that but france faces a budgetary crisis that caused the political crisis and doesn't have unlimited capital to just take on the entire fcas program nor does it appear that france and germany

Will be able to work out their issues anytime soon the two sides were supposed to come together this month to work out their issues but instead that meeting was cancelled because right now france has bigger problems german chancellor friedrich mars has warned france that if the current roadblocks delay progress past the start of 2026 the entire program might

Simply have to be discontinued and the roadblocks facing the F-CAS are not going to be simple to resolve.

As expert Emile Archambault from the German Council on Foreign Relations explained, quote, there are increasing reports that there still isn't an agreement on the basement characteristics of the airplane, its size, range, and cost.

Now, technically there is still time to salvage the F-CAS, but the likelihood that the program could be brought back online seems to be dismal at best. If it collapses, then the European Union will lose the only sixth-generation fighter project that exclusively involved EU member states.

Germany may prove unable to salvage the cooperative agreement in some other form. France may lack both the political will and the capital to quickly finance a project of its own, and at best, the resulting delays could push any eventual aircraft back to at least the 2040s.

That would constitute a death knell for European strategic autonomy, and if Paris and Berlin want to avoid that outcome, then something about the situation urgently has to change.

In the nation of Peru, nobody likes Dina Bellate. We don't just mean that Peru's now former president was unpopular, we mean that quite literally nobody liked her. With approvals hovering somewhere around 3% of all Peruvians, Dina Bellate was Peru's president in spite of her people, not because of them.

But up until this week, it appeared that Bellate's place at the head of the Peruvian government was secure. Now, to say that modern Peru is a troubled nation is to horribly understate the case. Peru has gone through more presidents in the last 10 years than an ice cream shop goes through waffle cones.

The nation's entire leadership is notoriously corrupt and embroiled in constant scandals, and organized crime is on the rise. But when a country's entire leadership is deeply corrupt and wants to retain their collective power, they tend to work together and ensure that their people lack the means to bring them down.

Modern Peru has been rapidly transforming into what regional expert James Bosworth described as, quote, Latin America's first parliamentary oligarchy.

That is to say, Peru's Congress, its legislative or parliamentary system, basically holds all the power in the nation, anointing presidents who serve as figureheads and lightning rods for public discontent, while all the nation's legislatures collaborate with corrupt national elites in a cycle of self-enrichment.

So, up until this past week, Dina Bellate was Peru's president, and thus Dina Bellate was that lightning rod for public rage that we mentioned. Thus, we can explain that abysmal 3% approval rating.

But despite the way the Peruvian people felt about her, Bellate's place in the presidency was thought to be secure, mostly because, if nothing had gotten rid of her, it seemed as if there might just be nothing that could force her out.

Bellate had been exposed for everything, from ordering the assassination of protesters, to using state funds to buy herself Rolex. watches, and other luxury goods. She's been threatened with impeachment no fewer than seven times, and is under investigation for flagrant violation of human rights.

There had been so many opportunities for Peru's Congress to get rid of her, quell a bit of public discontent, and then just replace her with the next president, and the next one after that. But that didn't happen, and since December of 2022, she's proven herself to be the most irritatingly unshakable leader that Peru has had to deal with in decades.

But all of that changed last Thursday night, when almost out of nowhere, the largest bloc in Peru's Congress turned on Belate and signaled that it would move immediately to impeach her.

On the evening prior, men on motorcycles had ambushed and shot four members of a popular band in Peru's capital, Lima. And although none of the four wounded band members died, the incident crystallized Peru's worsening crisis in a new way.

In 2025, rates of gang-led extortion in Peru have risen to over 2,000 cases per month, gangs have grown more brazen in killing people who refuse to pay, and explosive attacks against civilian targets have grown more and more common.

Protests in Peru are gaining strength, in keeping with the trend of Gen Z-led protests that have led to changes in government in Nepal and Madagascar within barely more than the last month.

But as we've seen in so many similar cases around the world, a single act of violence flipped the switch, and within just hours of the decision to impeach her, Belate had already been removed from office. The measure passed unanimously, 122 votes to zero, on grounds of Belate's, quote, permanent moral incapacity.

Savage. Peru's new interim leader is a man named Jose Harry, aged 38 and previously the head of the Peruvian Congress. Harry is far from an improvement over Belate.

He's just as corrupt and has recently been investigated for sexual assault, while as a facet of his place at the head of Peru's Congress, he's widely believed to be a nexus for all the bribery and elite influence the Peruvian government is known for. But in any case, the focus in Peru today has little to do with Harry himself.

Instead, Peru's focus has shifted to the upcoming round of presidential elections in April.

According to some analysts, Belate was impeached mostly to get ahead of public frustration in advance of that election because no politician in Peru wants to run for the presidency while also seeming to defend Belate before a voting public that despises her.

But even when those depictions do eventually take place, it's all but certain that Peru's overarching culture of elite corruption and legislative neglect will endure just with a new figure taking the blame.

Quoting James Bosworth again, Harry could remain president or Peru could shift presidents three more times and it will all just be a footnote in the history books while the Congress will control the power now and likely into the next presidential term.

It would take a major sea change in Peru to reverse the nation's current course, and right now it appears that Peru is on track to become a permanent parliamentary dictatorship. and for our final story we turn our attention to kenya where the east african nation is in mourning following the death of former prime minister and veteran opposition leader rayla

Adinga he passed away on wednesday the 15th of october at the age of 80. eulogized as a once in a generation leader and the father of kenya's democracy for the role he played in ending the autocratic single-party rule of former president daniel moi rayla will perhaps best be remembered for unsuccessfully vie for the presidency five times his failure to

Capture the state house kenya's version of the white house was not for a lack of popular support in kenya where people primarily vote along tribal lines adinga commanded what local governance expert dr caroline moz described as and will quote here near fanatical devotion as the undisputed kingpin of the luo community and much of the wider nyanza region this

Influence however extended far beyond his ethnic base he was able to mobilize the support of millions across the country and build coalitions often with political foes that consistently guaranteed him and his allies a seat at the table these coalitions often referred to as handshakes because of the photo ops that accompanied each agreement would become a key

Part of his legacy earning in the nickname the king of handshakes his admirers saw this as the epitome of statesmanship while his detractors saw it as political opportunism what's indisputable is the fact that these handshakes often stabilize governments during extremely challenging times including that of president moai kabaki following the contested 2007

Elections and subsequent post election violence and most recently the government of current president william ruto after the gen z protests in 2024 while some gen z protesters saw this as an unforgivable betrayal not just of their movement but of the liberation struggle he had fought for others believed it was a necessary step to pull the country back from

The brink an official in the orange democratic movement or odm the party that railer founded in 2005 told us and we'll quote him here what railer did by bringing together odm and uda president ruto's political party to form the broad-based government was selfless and it was the only thing that stopped the country from descending into anarchy it's a view

Supported by abdul rahim de wood a member of parliament who said that without railers intervention kenya might have turned out like nepal or madagascar where protesters successfully ousted unpopular leaders although the broad-based government did stabilize president ruto's regime we'd be remiss if we didn't point out the cracks that have already begun to

Show and there are now fears that it could collapse persistent economic challenges mounting public frustration with the country's unaddressed issues such as corruption have threatened to undo what has always been a fragile partnership and some believe railers death will hasten its demise president ruto has already begun making contingency plans most recently

Burying the hatchet with longtime rival gideon moy the leader of the kenya african national union or KANU, and inviting him to join the government.

However, according to Dr. Mose, this might just widen the existing cracks, making the alliance more likely to collapse. Quoting her again here, KANU was reportedly offered some ministerial and ambassadorial positions in the recent partnership.

Short of inventing new ministries and state departments, it means there will likely be sacrificial lambs from both UDA and ODM to make space for KANU stalwarts. Without Rayla's influence, it is likely that ODM would produce the most sacrificial lambs as President Ruto tries to accommodate his new allies.

And the government isn't the only possible casualty in such a scenario.

ODM itself could implode as individuals try to secure their political future in a post-Rayla world. While the party quickly named Rayla's older brother, Sire Senator Oburu Oginga, as interim party leader, few believe this is anything more than a stopgap measure.

The party is deeply divided between those who favor continuing the partnership with Ruto and younger lawmakers who have positioned themselves in opposition.

The younger politicians point to incidents like what happened at Kassarani Stadium on Thursday as evidence that the partnership with Ruto's government is untenable.

During the public viewing of Odinga's body at Nairobi's Moy International Sports Center, a stampede occurred after crowds surged forward towards the Presidential Pavilion entrance and the police responded with tear gas and live ammunition. According to The Guardian, four people died and scores more were injured.

One of our reporters, Wilfred, was on the scene, speaking to ODM officials, for the story when the first tear gas canisters were fired. Luckily, he managed to get out unscathed, but the moment left an indelible mark on him. We'll quote him here.

When I heard the first shot, I froze before instinct kicked in, and I began running to avoid getting caught in the stampede. It was frightening. I never thought they would shoot during the viewing.

The Kassarani killings have become a rallying point for those who believe the broad-based government experiment has failed. They argue that if the state can't manage a public viewing, then it is incapable of ruling and delivering on what Kenyans need.

Some have called for protests, but at the time of writing, none have occurred, with most people focused on Rayla's burial, which is scheduled for Sunday.

What happens after that is anybody's guess, but one thing is clear, Rayla's death has created uncertainty not just for the political class, but for the entire nation. How Kenyans navigates that next chapter will perhaps be the greatest test of Rayla's legacy. Thank you for watching.