WarFronts Weekly 12.5.2025: Friday Blitz.

05.12.2025

Southern Faction Launches Yemen Offensive:

A rebel faction is claiming large swathes of territory in Yemen —but, this time, it’s not the Houthi organization behind the takeover. Across the last several days, a UAE-backed separatist group called the Southern Transitional Council has carried out the first stage of a major land offensive , dubbed “ The Promising Future ”.

The Southern Transitional Council (STC) holds a long stretch of territory along most of Yemen’s southern coast, and has called for the establishment of a “ Federation of South Arabia ” for years, claiming land along the territorial lines that used to demarcate the Cold War-era state of South Yemen. While the STC has typically minded its own affairs and avoided direct conflict with the Houthis whenever possible, it’s been active in Yemen’s civil war , fighting against the nation’s internationally recognized government and various jihadist factions.

Now, though, the STC appears to have its sights set on the full control of former South Yemeni territory. Its new offensive has already taken over the city of Seiyun , formerly under the control of the internationally recognized Yemeni government, including the city’s presidential palace and its airport. It has also taken over most of the remaining territory in the region of Hadhramaut , and seized control of Yemen’s largest oil company, PetroMasila.

The offensive is led by the Hadrami Elite Forces , a skilled fighting faction that aligns itself to the STC, but essentially controls its own autonomous region within STC territory. The Hadrami are trained directly by the UAE , formerly with the benefit of Saudi funding, and has gained significant battle experience in operations against al-Qaeda and other groups.

If the STC succeeds in taking over the rest of Hadhramaut region, it will control nearly four-fifths of Yemen’s oil reserves , and will substantially increase its chances at forcing a permanent de-facto territorial partition . As of now, they’ve avoided conflict with Saudi-backed tribes in the area, who have agreed to withdraw to safer areas and let the internationally recognized government fight alone.

For the Emirates, the STC are a valuable international partner , guaranteeing base access at two facilities in the Gulf of Aden and helping to assert Emirati influence in the broader Red Sea region. According to expert analysis, the STC appears to be receiving substantial military support , including Chinese-made howitzers that have also made their way to Sudan’s RSF.

Around the World:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears to have narrowly escaped an assassination attempt on Irish soil. On Monday night, four large, unidentified, military-style drones breached a no-fly zone near Dublin’s main airport and flew toward the expected location of Zelenskyy’s plane, as it approached for landing. Luckily for Zelenskyy, the plane had arrived slightly ahead of schedule. The drones were launched northeast of Dublin, and were observed by a secretly deployed Irish Navy vessel; any other details on their origin or eventual destination are as-yet unknown.

The United States intends to push Europe to assume the majority of NATO’s conventional defense capabilities by 2027, in a reflection of Washington’s larger effort to offload responsibility for the defense of Europe. The tight timeline will leave European nations with a short window to address critical gaps, including intelligence/reconnaissance, strategic airlift, and command-and-control capability.

Reuters reports that China is massing an unprecedented number of ships in East Asian waters, in what experts describe to the outlet as a coordinated show of force. The total number of deployed ships has, at times, crossed above 100, but China has not announced any ongoing military exercises. The move comes as China is in the midst of a diplomatic dispute with Japan, around the idea that Japan would try and support Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.

Violence is escalating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s South Kivu region, where the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel coalition has launched a new offensive. The fighting comes as Congolese and Rwandan officials visited Washington to sign a new US-brokered peace deal, although that deal has roundly failed to address the conflict itself.

Days after Danish forces opened fire on overflying, unidentified drones for the first time, France fired upon several drones flying over its Ile Longue naval base, where the nation houses and maintains its nuclear submarines. The overflight involved five known drones on Tuesday evening; unidentified drones are a known issue over and around the base.

The Red Sea region witnessed its latest suspected pirate attack on Friday, when a bulk carrier ship was chased by multiple small vessels that opened fire in what appeared to be a failed boarding attempt. Somali piracy, dormant since early 2024, is on the rise again as Houthi forces pause their attacks on Red Sea trade.

Ukraine acknowledged a successful strike on the large Russian chemical plant Nevinnomyssky Azot, where Russia produces explosives components critical to its war effort. The extent of the damage is not yet clear. Elsewhere, Russian local emergency services reported that Ukraine struck the port of Temyruk on the Azov Sea, where Russia exports LNG, oil products, and other goods central to Russia’s economy.

The United States introduced a new weapon to the fight in the Middle East: long-range, one-way kamikaze drones that are essentially cloned versions of Iran’s Shahed-136. The drones are now operational with a forward-deployed unit, Task Force Scorpion Strike, and represents an effort by the US to “ flip the script on Iran ”. We discussed the Shahed-136 and global attempts to replicate it, in this recent episode .

Militant factions in Syria’s Druze-majority southern province of Suwayda surged into action this week, kidnapping and killing at least two prominent Druze clerics in what appears to be a crackdown against local opposition. The killed clerics were rivals to Israel-backed cleric and local warlord Hikmat al-Hijri, who appears to have ordered the wider crackdown.

Guinea-Bissau’s electoral commission reported that the country’s November 23 election results cannot be counted , after armed men seized ballots and servers storing results data were destroyed. The report lends credence to fears that the country’s recent coup was an inside job, organized by an embattled, now-exiled president who was unlikely to win re-election based on the official results, but now may be able to manipulate a do-over vote.

A Peruvian presidential candidate was attacked by an unknown gunman while in his car this week, in the latest apparent act of political violence in a country known for widespread organized crime. The targeted candidate, Rafael Belaunde, is polling only in the single digits, but is the grandson of a former Peruvian president.

Tunisian law enforcement arrested leading opposition figure Chaima Issa in the capital city of Tunis, amidst government efforts to crack down on a fast-growing protest movement. Tunisian President Kais Saied has struggled to assert authoritarian control, as a shrinking group of remaining opposition groups continue to harness public discontent with his rule. Issa has since started a hunger strike in captivity.

Britain and Norway announced a joint naval patrol effort in the North Sea, with both nations committing to a collaborative effort to hunt down Russian submarines and protect subsea fiber-optic cables. The agreement comes after a Russian spy ship loitered near British waters and likely surveilled critical undersea assets; we discussed the incident here .

Sudan’s internationally recognized military government handed Russia a potentially critical strategic victory this week, when it offered to host a Russian port on the Red Sea . A Red Sea port has long been a key priority for Moscow, as Russia looks to exert control over the critical sea lane and build a more coherent supply network for its Africa operations.

Qatari officials announced that they intend to open a diplomatic office in the breakaway autonomous region of Somaliland, despite the protestations of Somalia’s federal government in Mogadishu. Qatar will join the United Arab Emirates as the second Gulf nation to establish a foothold on Somaliland’s territory.

Germany announced that it had become the first European nation to deploy the Arrow 3 , an Israeli product that is reportedly now operational in German service. The Arrow 3 is a high-altitude air-defense system, and has been combat-proven in Israel’s engagements against Iran and Yemen’s Houthi rebels.

Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto indicated that Germany, Australia, Saudi Arabia, and Canada may each be interested in joining the sixth-generation GCAP fighter jet program, currently under development via Italy, Britain, and Japan. Germany may soon leave a parallel sixth-generation effort, the FCAS program with France and Spain.

China’s military export revenues dropped overall in 2024 , in what was otherwise a record-breaking year for global military producers. The dip, as analyzed by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), is a result of corruption purges that have slowed down the dealmaking-and-procurement process.

Turkey announced the start of construction on its first indigenously produced submarine, the MILDEN, in the latest move intended to make Turkey competitive with global arms leaders, and rival rising producer South Korea. Turkey also cut a deal with Romania to build and export a naval corvette.

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