WarFronts Weekly 5.29.2026: Friday Blitz.

29.05.2026

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Iran Ceasefire Fails to Constrain Israeli Military Action:

On Thursday, the United States and Iran tentatively agreed on a framework for an extended ceasefire, granting a sixty-day extension to the existing deal and starting a parallel series of negotiations on the future of Iran’s nuclear program. Pending approval by US President Donald Trump and Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the agreement would allow unrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and provide Iran with waivers to alleviate US sanctions.

That agreement, however, is not expected to address the ongoing conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza, where Israel has continued to pressure the Iran-backed proxy organizations Hezbollah and Hamas, respectively. In fact, in each combat zone, Israel appears to be expanding its offensives, with no sign that it would draw down operations in response to a US-Iran deal.

On Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Thursday that he had ordered his military forces to take control of seventy percent of the Gaza Strip, in violation of the fragile US-backed ceasefire that officially governs the conflict. Israel has gradually expanded its control over the Gaza Strip over the last several months, and now controls over sixty percent of the total land area there. As written, the ceasefire granted Israel direct control of fifty-three percent of Gaza, behind a line of demarcation.

Also in Gaza, Israeli forces killed the new leader of Hamas’ military wing, Mohammed Odeh, less than two weeks after Odeh was elevated to the post. Like his predecessor, Odeh was reviled in Israel as one of the alleged architects of the October 7, 2023 attacks, and was killed in an airstrike alongside his family.

In Lebanon, meanwhile, Israel issued a directive on Wednesday instructing Lebanese residents to leave all areas south of the Zahrani River, which runs north of a second river that has typically marked the outer bounds of Israeli military action, the Litani. The new evacuation order indicates that Israel intends to push much further than in past offensives; Netanyahu explained that the push is intended, in part, to expand a buffer zone against Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel.

To support its northward offensive, Israel has initiated a river-crossing operation over the Litani, where Israeli forces have been engaged by Hezbollah fighters at several locations. Israeli warplanes have launched hundreds of localized airstrikes in support of the crossing. While Israeli troops have the capacity to carry out similar, complex crossing operations, any crossing requires Israel to maintain control over fixed positions, where troops can easily be targeted by Hezbollah’s growing arsenal of fiber-optic drones.

Israel and Lebanon will hold critical ceasefire negotiations in Washington today, in a conversation that Lebanon hopes will help to manage the conflict—which is formally governed by a ceasefire since the seventeenth of April. Yesterday, however, Israel carried out an airstrikejust outside the Lebanese capital city of Beirut, in a broader wave of strikes that killed fourteen—including five women and children, and a Lebanese soldier.

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Around the World:

At least fifty-two guerrilla fighters from two rival armed groups were killed in Colombia’s southeastern Guaviare department, in a dispute over cocaine production infrastructure and trafficking networks. Each of the rival groups is an ex-FARC splinter faction that rejected Bogota’s offer of a peace agreement in 2016. The battle took place just three days before the nationwide election that will choose Petro’s successor.

The Sudan Doctors Network accused the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces of carrying out a long-range strike that killed at least twenty-seven, including elderly people, near the town of Barah in North Kordofan. According to the organization, the Thursday strike impacted an area without any military presence, during the second day of Eid al-Adha.

Islamic State – Somalia carried out an attack on the army of Somalia’s Puntland region on Monday, ambushing a base in the Cal Miskaad mountain range where IS-Somalia has been entrenched for years. Five Puntland soldiers were killed in the attack, including a commander; IS-Somalia is working to counter recent Puntland territorial gains in the area. Also this week, Puntland authorities directed local communities and nomads to leave the mountain range, in advance of larger coming operations—possibly relying on foreign air support.

Further west, the Islamic State – Sahel Province claimed credit for twin attacks in Nigeria that reportedly left eighteen soldiers and a policeman dead. This is the first time that IS-Sahel has claimed credit for killings on Nigerian soil; the nation also faces a second Islamic State insurgency, IS-West Africa Province.

The Rwanda-backed M23 rebellion in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo has successfully against the vital mining town of Rubaya, according to Critical Threats. Rubaya is the source of roughly fifteen to thirty percent of the global supply of coltan. Congolese and allied militia forces made significant progress, aided by private military contractors, but were pushed back in an M23 counteroffensive that leveraged “special force units, heavy artillery, and attack drones”.

A Russian drone hit an apartment building in NATO-member Romania early this morning, injuring two people and sparking a fire. The drone was launched toward Ukraine, but was one among an unknown number of drones that crossed into Romanian airspace; several aircraft were scrambled to intercept. Per officials, the drone did not appear to deliberately target the apartment bloc, implying that it may have been intercepted successfully before crashing in a populated area. Romania will raise the issue with the UN Security Council.

Guatemala has agreed to carry out joint strikes against organized criminal groups with the United States, becoming the second nation to agree to such a deal after Ecuador entered a similar arrangement several months ago. According to US sources speaking to the New York Times, Washington is working to strike a similar deal in Honduras.

The Chinese military reported a confrontation with a Dutch naval frigate near the Paracel Islands, where Beijing accused the Dutch vessel of an illegal intrusion. Chinese ships and aircraft intercepted and drove away the frigate, after its onboard helicopters allegedly flew into Chinese airspace; the Netherlands disputed China’s version of events.

The United States Pentagon disclosed that US forces on deployment to war zones abroad have been targeted using commercially available location data, per a letter from US CENTCOM shared with Reuters. The letter indicates that location data is used to surveil and target soldiers, likely by identifying points of congregation and tracking soldiers’ patterns of movement.

Poland and the United Kingdom will sign a new defense and security pact in the near future, according to a statement from the British government on Tuesday. The agreement will facilitate partnership on organized crime, border security, next-generation weapons development, and defense partnership with the European Union; it is London’s third agreement of this type with EU member states, after Germany and France.

Sweden will donate sixteen Gripen C/Dfighter aircraft to Ukraine starting in early 2027, and Ukraine will purchase twenty copies of the more advanced Gripen E, with deliveries starting in 2030. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Gripens will be delivered with Meteor missiles and other undisclosed munitions, allowing Ukraine to target the bomber aircraft Russia uses to launch long-range cruise missiles.

Russia passed a law allowing its central bank and other banking organizations to operate their own private air defense systems, and arm their staff with the requisite equipment to destroy incoming drones. The announcement came after a Ukrainian strike on a branch of the Russian Central Bank in the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Russia will allow other private companies to purchase large-caliber weapons, vehicles, electronic warfare systems, and other equipment to defend against drone assaults.

China has expanded serial production of its J-20A fifth-generation jet fighter, integrating powerful new WS-15 turbofan engines that are expected to substantially enhance the aircraft’s capabilities. The WS-15 is a clean-sheet engine design, China’s first, and its integration into the J-20A suggests that the engine is being manufactured at scale.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Ottawa will purchase several copies of Sweden’s GlobalEye early warning and control aircraft from the Saab corporation, instead of the US-made E-7 Wedgetail, a Boeing product. The purchase represents Canada’s latest effort to reduce dependence on US-made military hardware; Canada is also considering a purchase of Saab’s Gripen fighter jet, and downsizing its order of American F-35s.