These are the Winners and Losers of Hungary's Election

On Sunday the 12th of April, Budapest gained a new leader for the first time in 16 years. Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz Party were ousted from the Hungarian parliament in a decisive landslide victory for the Tisza Party under Peter Magyar.

To the surprise of many, Orbán quickly conceded the election, despite preelection warnings that he might try to cling to power, with his programme of illiberal democracy seeming to have the perfectly set the stage to contest the election results. But credit where it is due, Orbán has safely relinquished his grip on power after a decade and a half, even calling Magyar to congratulate him.

Magyar’s projected supermajority gives him and his party an extremely strong mandate for Hungarian politics going forward. Having run on a campaign of anti-corruption against the entrenched Orbán administration, Magyar will hope in time to reverse Orbán-era laws, push anti-corruption reforms, rewarm ties with the EU, and present Hungary as a more conventional European partner again.

But Magyar’s victory has wider strategic implications too. We are a world of constant conflict and zero-sum geopolitics, and where there are winners from this landmark election result, there are also losers – and both will have wide-ranging effects on Europe as a whole.

The Winners

Ukraine

The undisputed winner of Hungary’s election (after Magyar and his party of course) is Ukraine. Orbán as a leader was extremely soft on Russia and its leader, President Vladimir Putin. In a recent phone call between the two men, Orbán told Putin he wanted to be the “mouse” to the Russian “lion.” Magyar is no pro-Ukraine, anti-Russia war hawk; but his government is expected to be less obstructive with the EU mainstream over issues like aid for Ukraine. Orban’s years in power have proved extremely disruptive for the EU’s support of Ukraine, and with him now out of the picture the political landscape around sanctions, aid packages, and general support stands to shift in Kyiv’s favour. Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelenskyy’s positive reaction to the election results tell you all you need to know, especially as a score in the win column for pro-democratic electoralism in Europe.

Ukraine and Hungary have been in an ongoing dispute over energy resources since 2024, which centred around Kyiv blocking oil from the Russian energy corporation Lukoil, and stopping its energy resources transiting the Druzhba pipeline. A significant portion of this pipeline runs through the west of Ukraine and into Europe, and specifically into Hungary. This prompted Budapest, as well as the Slovakian government in Bratislava to accuse Kyiv of threatening both nation’s energy security, and seeking to escalate the matter to Brussels. The pipeline went down in January of 2026 after damage that Kyiv said was caused by a Russian strike, but this has proved another point of contention with Budapest arguing that Kyiv was dragging its feet over repairs. This further escalated in the following months, as the Hungarian government threatened to cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine, which made up just under a third of its monthly supply. The dispute is as yet unresolved, but an amicable solution is more likely to be found now that pro-Russia Orbán is no longer running the show. It goes without saying that this could be a major win for Ukraine in bulwarking itself against Moscow’s attempts to freeze Kyiv out every winter.

European Financial Markets

Another major winner is the economic state of Europe following Orban’s defeat. Markets reacted positively to the election result almost immediately, with the Hungarian currency the forint jumping in value to its highest level since February of 2022. Investors were reassured by the likelihood of more predictable relations with the EU, and the nation as a result can expect a major economic adrenaline boost. Tens of billions of euros in EU funds that were frozen by Brussels may start to flow back into the country pending greater cooperation with the organisation. This would stand to strengthen the bloc economically, which is crucial for Europe amidst volatile energy prices stemming from the current conflict in the Middle East.

It’s not a financial silver bullet, but any action that brings greater economic stability and security to Europe will be much appreciated by its governments. Although Peter Magyar will have to be careful not to totally alienate countries like China and Russia if he wants to extract the maximum domestic economic benefit.

The EU

Finally, the last major winner is the EU itself. The economic benefits of bringing Hungary back into the fold are numerous, but for Europe Hungary’s election is less about what it gained in Magyar, and more about what it lost in Orban.

On a lot of the most sensitive questions, especially foreign policy, sanctions, budget matters, treaty changes, enlargement, and some security decisions, the EU still works by votes based on unanimity, which means every member state effectively has a veto. In practice this means that a relatively small member state can extract leverage by being awkward, obstructionist, or simply refusing to play along. Orbán was a master of this and caused major disruption across the board on EU decision-making in order to benefit himself, his supporters, and (most-worryingly) his backers in Moscow. One such example is when he threatened to torpedo the EU’s budget proposal in 2025. Simply put, with Orbán ousted, the EU has ridden itself of a particularly stubborn thorn in its side.

A more cooperative Hungary stands to make EU decision-making less dysfunctional when it comes to big strategic questions, which is likely to shift Eastern Europe as a whole further west as a matter of principle. In particular, pro-EU voices like Poland’s prime minister Donald Tusk have come out of this looking vindicated. Prior to Tusk’s victory in the 2023 Polish elections, Warsaw and Budapest had long been seen as part of the same illiberal bloc, but now both nations can act as living proof that illiberal democracies within the EU have a path back to prosperity through cooperation. By no means does this eliminate the unanimity issue, but Orbán’s concession cuts out a disruptor that made it harder to get things done.

The Losers

Robert Fico

As for losers, the first would be Robert Fico of Slovakia. A similarly illiberal politician and part of the energy dispute with Ukraine, Orbán’s defeat has cost Fico an ally among an illiberal block moving in an increasingly autocratic direction within the EU.

Fico has long tried to push a more sovereigntist and pro-Russian line, and between him and Orban, that informal cadre was effective in frustrating EU decision-making. Fico himself will have been peeking at the election results through his fingers and with a clenched jaw given that the Orbán model was seen as one for Fico to emulate in his own country. But Orbán’s defeat was a resounding rejection of such ideas, and aspirational Orban-ites like Fico would do well to heed the warning that Europe. Even Fico’s quick move to congratulate Magyar felt more like a recognition that the ground has shifted from underneath him. Slovakia is likely to become a more fierce political battleground now that Fico is the only major pro-Russian voice left in the EU, and he will be looking over his shoulder, especially with elections of his own coming in 2027.

Russia

The losses for the Kremlin are obvious. Putin’s mouse in Budapest getting ousted makes Russian attempts to disrupt the EU internally much more difficult. Orbán often acted as a brake for the EU, de facto softening its stance over the Russo-Ukrainian conflict despite the overwhelming supportive sentiment that the EU has shown for Kyiv. A more balanced Hungarian government weakens that position, especially in the east.

With Orbán gone Europe stands to be more aligned on both defence and energy, meaning the Kremlin will increasingly have to turn to other partners in order to have influence over the continent. Come 2027 and Slovakia’s elections, Muscovite influence might even be kicked out of the EU entirely, and there’s a lot less that the more pro-Russian states like Serbia and Belarus can do to disrupt the bloc from the outside looking in. Overall, the Hungarian election result will sting for Putin, who will see Orban’s defeat as a threat to his own regime security, especially as Hungary is a NATO member. A renewed relationship with the alliance de facto raises the threat perception in Moscow, which can no longer count on western disunity as effectively.

The White House

The final loser of the Hungarian election is the White House, specifically President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance. Orbán and the current administration aligned on a surprising number of issues, from being pro-Russian, to causing conflict within established alliances and organisations they participate in. Orbán was admired by both European populists and the American right as proof that such a model could not only function, but endure under pressure and scrutiny. The result of the election dents that myth, fostering a greater European solidarity that the Trump administration has spent its second term attempting to dismantle.

Vance even visited Hungary on the eve of the election to bolster support for Orbán and his base, a move that is now turning out to be decidedly short-sighted. International sentiment towards the Trump administration has plummeted since the war with Iran began, and it seems like Orbán’s loss was as much a rejection of the unstable pro-Trump populist right as it was a rejection of Orbán himself. In fact, Vance’s visit might have done more harm than good for Orbán’s campaign. Orbán had close ties to Trump’s world, parroting a similar brand of cultural warfare and state power. So it stands to reason that Orbán – The White House’s European mascot for illiberal nationalism – losing is a symbolically damaging event in DC. It also entrenches the idea that the time for a populist Europe that aligns with Trump’s own base has started to pass, especially given such a resounding mandate.

A caveat and a word of warning

It’s important to recognise that autocrats like Orbán are not always so easily defeated by having people go to the polls. Orbán and his party are still inextricably tied to various Hungarian institutions like the chief prosecutor’s office, the country’s top court, the state audit office, state media, oversight bodies, the country’s national bank, and the ceremonial office of the president – mostly by stacking them with loyalists. Much of these institutions may still be significantly pro-Orban, and if Hungary isn’t careful, the ousted Prime Minister could still find ways to project through backchannels or via other means.

Hungary’s new government under Magyar has an opportunity and the responsibility to dismantle the network of cronyism that Orbán built, but it must be vigilant of attempts to supersede democratically elected power by illiberal forces. If it does so, then the country faces a major change in trajectory from its backslide into nationalist autocracy. However, if it fails to recognise this fact, then Budapest’s new liberal democratic experiment might be short lived – and that would make the Hungarian people the biggest losers of all.

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