WarFronts Weekly 3.13.2026: Friday Blitz.

13.03.2026

Due to the constantly developing nature of the Iran conflict, and the sheer volume of Iran-focused updates on a daily basis, our team is exploring other ways to provide consistent coverage of the war on Fronts.co and direct to your inbox. For the duration of the conflict, WarFronts Weekly will remain primarily focused on other global developments. More information coming soon, and thanks for your patronage.

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Israel Builds Secretive Somaliland Base:

Israel’s ongoing air campaign against Iran, run jointly with the United States, has brought Iran closer to regime collapse than ever. But according to a bombshell report released Wednesday by Bloomberg, Israel remains focused on a parallel initiative to degrade and destroy Iranian proxy allies abroad—and is laying the foundation for a military base on the Red Sea coast, for that very purpose.

According to the Bloomberg report, Israel has been working for months to establish a base on the Somali coastline, just 260 kilometers from the nation of Yemen. There, the Iran-backed Houthi rebel organization has launched persistent attacks against both Israeli territory, and Red Sea shipping, since the early months of the Israel-Hamas War.

But rather than working with the Somali government, Israel is partnering with the administration in breakaway Somaliland, which controls the territory closest to the Yemeni coast. According to Bloomberg, Israeli officials first surveyed potential sites in June of 2025, and have since established a presence at a hotel in Somaliland’s capital city, Hargeisa.

In Somaliland, Israel ultimately plans to build the capability to attack Houthi facilities directly; per a senior Israeli official, the nation now regards the Houthi rebels as one of its greatest existential threats. Somaliland officials told Bloomberg that Israel will be allowed to gather intelligence and conduct operations from Somaliland’s territory.

Israel became the first and, thus far, only nation to recognize Somaliland’s sovereignty claim in December of 2025, in what turned out to be a critical inflection point in Middle Eastern security. That decision, as well as an Emirates-backed attempt by Yemeni separatists to establish a new sovereign state on captured territory, galvanized a reorientation of alliances across the Middle East: Israel, UAE, Morocco, and Ethiopia on one side, and Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, and smaller partners on the other. We covered that realignment on WarFronts, here, here, and here, in order of release.

Israel’s decision is the latest indicator of ongoing Israeli-Emirati security cooperation across the Middle East and North Africa; the Emirates have operated a military base in Somaliland, and another in neighboring Puntland, for years now, and base significant intelligence assets on the territory of Somali autonomous states.

For that reason, however, Israel’s decision to build its own base is especially relevant; Jerusalem has chosen to pursue its own bilateral relations with Somaliland, and keep its military operations separate, rather than integrating or collaborating with Emirati forces at the UAE’s existing base—which could be ready to support operations much sooner.

In line with Israel’s deepening Somaliland relations, Israel intends to open an embassy in Somaliland in the near future. That embassy will likely support the work of a newly created Israeli intelligence unit, meant to focus on Houthi forces after Jerusalem was caught off-guard in 2024 and 2025 by recently developed Houthi capabilities.

The Somali federal government is likely to oppose any expansion of the partnership between Somaliland and Israel. Already this year, Somalia has cut all commercial and security ties with the Emirates, and welcomed Turkish F-16s and Egyptian ground forces as a direct rebuttal to Israeli and Emirati partnership with Somaliland and Puntland.

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Around the World:

Tuareg rebels in Mali launched a record-breaking attack on Wednesday, striking a Malian military installation at an airport with a swarm of twenty-five explosive kamikaze drones. If confirmed, the strike would constitute the largest kamikaze drone swarm in Sahel history, months after Tuareg forces were confirmed to have received direct training in drone operations from the Ukrainian military. Forces from Russia’s paramilitary Africa Corps were present on the struck Malian base. Also this week, the al-Qaeda-linked insurgency JNIM appeared to kill six Africa Corps soldiers in Mali’s Segou Province.

Across the Sahel, JNIM killed fifteen soldiers in an attack in northern Benin last week, and launched a second attack in Benin days later, killing six others. The assaults mark the first major JNIM operations in Benin since 2025; the group appears to be responding to accusations from a defected former commander, who accused JNIM of brokering a ceasefire deal with Benin and the Ivory Coast.

At least seventeen people, including schoolgirls and teachers, were killed in a Wednesday drone strike on a school in Sudan. The strike was blamed on the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary; it was the latest of several Sudanese drone strikes against civilian targets in the last several days. On Sunday, drones hit two markets in Sudan’s southwest, killing a total of thirty-three people per local sources; in those instances, the Sudanese Armed Forces were accused of perpetrating the strikes. On Thursday, attacked a checkpoint on the Chadian border, killing at least four people and injuring twenty-three civilians.

Myanmar’s state media of the town of Tagaung, north of the city of Mandalay, after a long offensive. While mostly relevant for its historicity, Tagaung has been a strategic stronghold and staging area for rebel forces since it was captured in 2024, with its fall marking a clear setback for pro-democracy fighters. Also this week, state media announced the acquisition of four new military aircraft—including two Russian Su-30s—as multiple rebel groups reported mass casualties in junta airstrikes and artillery shelling.

Ukraine struck a critical blow against Russia’s military-industrial complex on Tuesday, hitting a missile-components factory in Bryansk that is vital to Russia’s missile procurement capability. The attack used Storm Shadow missiles; the governor of Bryansk alleged that the strike killed six civilians, and did not acknowledge any hits on the factory.

A classroom shooter at the United States’ Old Dominion University, in the state of Virginia, was identified as —a convicted Islamic State supporter with known ties to the Islamic State – West Africa Province. Jalloh was profiled in a 2020 book exploring jihadist insurgency in Nigeria, and was previously convicted of supporting the Islamic State. One person was killed, and two were injured, in the first known ISWAP-affiliated shooting on US soil.

Ecuador will escalate its anti-organized-crime operations this weekend with US assistance, according to radio statements by the nation’s interior minister. Ecuador will impose a two-week-long curfew in three western provinces, in advance of a major offensive that will see constant troop and logistical movements through the area.

Hezbollah is reportedly preparing to draw Israel into an asymmetric guerrilla conflict on Lebanese soil, in advance of an anticipated full-scale Israeli invasion. According to Reuters, Hezbollah fighters are working in small units and practicing coordination without the use of easily exploited electronic devices. Hezbollah has begun to ration its use of anti-tank rockets, available in limited supply; the group continues to launch rocket barrages against Israel, despite its relative lack of fighting potency in a direct confrontation.

Ukraine confirmed the deployment of specialized air-defense teams to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, responding to those nations’ request for support in dealing with Iranian missile and drone attacks. Ukrainian interceptor drones and jamming technology are expected to offer the three Gulf states a series of lower-cost, easier-to-use options to deal with incoming drones; Ukraine indicated that its teams will be in place by the end of this week. Ukrainian specialists are also confirmed present in Jordan, assisting operations at an American base.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel acknowledged with the United States for the first time, in a state-broadcast speech on Friday. Per Diaz-Canel, the talks are focused on addressing the “bilateral differences” between Cuba and the US; the Cuban government has endured consistent pressure and fuel blockades from the US since January, and is widely understood to be facing a slow, painful collapse, on its current course.

Poland reported a cyberattack on its nuclear research center on Thursday, and announced that early indicators reveal likely Iranian responsibility for the attack. While Warsaw has noted that another party, potentially Russia, may be working to misdirect blame onto Iran, the attack is the latest in a series of probing actions against Polish digital infrastructure.

Russian mercenaries and military-intelligence personnel are now consistently filling security roles aboard Russian shadow fleet vessels, including in the Baltic and Mediterranean seas, according to a new report by the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project. Ships typically travel with two extra crewmen on board, although those Russian crew are often not listed on crew manifests.

US Attorney General Pam Bondi was forced to relocate her personal residence to a military base near Washington, D.C. after persistent threats from Mexican drug cartels and supporters of detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, among others. Bondi is the latest high-profile US official to be moved into military housing, joining Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and several others.

China passed a new law on the nation’s “shared” national identity on Thursday, legally constraining the ethnic identities of the country’s 55 minority groups. Chinese citizens outside the ethnic Han majority are at risk of legal penalty for acts or statements that challenge perceptions of Chinese ethnic unity, and seeks to bring religion, language, and marriage practices into line with China’s expectations on cultural conformity.

Hungary will declassify a security report that Prime Minister Viktor Orban claims will validate his allegations of Ukrainian support for Orban’s political rival, ahead of April elections that Orban is forecasted to lose. The report’s declassification may help to explain Hungary’s recent impoundment of $82 million worth of dollars, euros, and gold traveling through Hungary to Ukraine, under the protection of Ukrainian state bank employees. On Thursday, Hungary Ukraine had used to transport the shipment, although the cash and gold remained in Hungarian custody.

Human Rights Watch reported on Monday that Israel deployed white phosphorus munitions, illegal under international law, in residential areas in the Lebanese town of Yohmor on the third of March. Israel has been consistently accused of using white phosphorus shells in its Lebanon operations, with the latest report indicating that the practice is likely to continue in upcoming offensives. The Israeli military declined to comment.

Also this week, a second HRW report alleged that Haitian security forces, and supporting mercenaries from the US-based Vectus Global company, have used explosive drones to kill over 1,200 people across the last year. Those fatalities included forty-three confirmed killings of adult civilians, and seventeen killings of children.

The United States will permanently close its consulate in Peshawar, Pakistan, the US consulate located closest to the Afghan border. While the closure is in line with Trump-administration efforts to downsize federal agencies, the Peshawar consulate is particularly notable as a key diplomatic and logistics headquarters across decades of Afghanistan operations, at a time when Trump has suggested that the US should try to secure control over Bagram Air Base after the nation’s 2021 withdrawal.

Paraguayan legislators approved an amendment to the nation’s defense posture, clearing the way for a temporary deployment of US troops and civilian support personnel on Paraguayan soil. The decision comes as Paraguay, and other right-wing Latin American governments, throw support behind US regional security initiatives.

The Czech Republic passed a 2026 budget that will fail to hit NATO defense spending targets, in a vote along party lines that ultimately supported the budgetary priorities of populist PM Andrej Babis. The budget allocates 1.7% of GDP for defense, short of NATO’s current 2% target, with no progress toward the 5% target NATO nations agreed to hit by 2035.

Polish President refused to sign legislation to spend over 40 billion euros to boost Poland’s military rearmament, in a pointed rebuke of the rest of the Polish government. A staunch nationalist, Nawrocki’s positions have posed challenges for Warsaw over the last several months, as one of the few opponents of military expansion with the institutional power to slow the process.

Ukrainian military trainers will teach in German army schools for the next several years, imparting lessons from Russia’s ongoing invasion as Germany prepares for future conflicts. Ukraine intends to support Germany’s objective to achieve military readiness by 2029—by which time, Berlin expects to be able to defend against any Russian attack on NATO.

Canada will invest the equivalent of $24 billion USD into in the Canadian North, to strengthen Canada’s sovereignty claim and military readiness near and above the Arctic Circle. Canada is the latest Arctic nation to bolster security, in the wake of US threats against Greenland—and threats to annex Canada into the US outright.

Japan will the United States’ Golden Dome missile defense initiative, and expects to be recruited for large-scale missile production due to ongoing global conflicts, according to Japanese authorities. Tokyo’s new PM, Sanae Takaichi, will announce the plan in a Washington D.C. meeting next week, per sources speaking to Reuters.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) confirmed that Europe was the world’s leading arms importer from 2021 through 2025, more than tripling expenditures from the previous five-year period. In total, Europe accounted for one-third of all global arms imports during the last five years; Middle Eastern imports fell, the United States strengthened its position as the world’s leading exporter, and Russia’s share of exports dropped precipitously to 6.8%, compared to 21% in the prior five-year span.