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Mali's Conflict is Nearing Crisis Point. Here's What Comes Next.

JNIM's capture of Kidal and tightening grip on northern Mali have pushed the junta and its Russian backers toward the brink — but Islamic State Sahel's rivalry may yet decide who rules, and whether the state survives.

Paweł Wójcik • September 29, 2026

Mali's Conflict is Nearing Crisis Point. Here's What Comes Next.

JNIM's capture of Kidal and tightening grip on northern Mali have pushed the junta and its Russian backers toward the brink — but Islamic State Sahel's rivalry.

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